JPMorgan Just Cornered The Commodity Derivative Market, And This Time There Is Proof

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For years there had been speculation, rumor and hearsay that JPM had cornered the US commodities market. Now, finally, we have documented proof.

近年、JPモルガンが米国商品市場を買い占めているといううわさが広まっていた。公式文書でその実態が明らかになった。


* * *

Traditionally, we look at the OCC's Quarterly Bank Report on derivatives activities to see which was the largest bank in the US in terms of total notional derivative holdings. The reason being that like on frequent occasions in the past, we find some stunning  results, such as most recently in January when we wrote that, for the first time, Citigroup had eclipsed JPM as the largest US bank in total derivatives, with just over $70 trillion compared to perennial megabank JPM's $65.3 trillion as of the third quarter of 2014, explaining also why Citigroup had drafted the Swaps push out language in the Omnibus Bill.

ゼロヘッジはOCC四半期報告で銀行のデリバティブ動向を確認してきた。昨年Q3まで永らく首位の座を保っていたJPモルガンを昨年Q4にシティグループが追い越した。

 

And while this time there was little exciting to report at the consolidated level (JPM overtook Citi in Q4 only for Citi to once again become the world's largest bank in total derivatives with $56.6 trillion compared to $56.2 trillion for JPM and $52 trillion for Goldman as Bloomberg reported earlier), and in fact total notional derivatives tumbled from $220.4 trillion in Q4 to $203.1 trillion in Q1 the lowest level since 2008...

シティグループが首位になったのは2014Q4だけでまたJPモルガンが首位に返り咲いた。ただしデリバティブ全体は2014Q4の220TUSDから2015Q1には203TUSDと2008年の規模に縮小している。

... an absolutely shocking blockbuster emerges when looking at the underlying component data.

Presenting Exhibit 12: Notional Amounts of Commodity Contracts by Maturity: even a CFTC regulator would be able to spot the outlier charted below.

その詳細をみるとおどろくべきことがわかった。図12を見てほしい、CFTC(米国商品先物市場)が驚くべきデータを示している。

 

What the chart above shows is that after fluctuating around the low to mid $200 billion range for the past 5 years, in Q1 the amount of Commodities with a maturity of under 1 year exploded to a record $3.9 trillion!

このグラフを見ればすぐわかるが、過去5年、大きな変動はなかったのに、今年Q1に1年以内満期の貴金属(ゴールドを含む)先物取り引きが3.9TUSDと激増している。


Sadly, the OCC provides no actual explanation for why there was such an epic surge in commodity derivatives within the US banking system in the first quarter, so we decided to explore.

残念ながらOCCの報告にはどうしてこのように突出した先物取引が生じたのか解説していないので調査してみた。


What we found is what those who have for years accused JPM of cornering the commodity markets, have known: because it is none other than JPMorgan's Commodity derivative book primarily in the <1 maturity bucket, which exploded from just $131 billion to a gargantuan and never before seen $3.8 trillion!

調査してみるとここ数年JPモルガンが商品市場を買い占めていた、ほとんどが一年以内の先物で、131BUSDとたしかに大きかったが、3.8TUSDというようなとてつもない額ではなかった。


In fact as the chart below shows, while historically JPM has accounted for just over 50% of total commodity holdings among all US commercial banks, in the Q1 this number soared to a stratospheric 96% which by anybody's standards is the very definition of cornering the market!

下のチャートを見ればわかるが、これまでJPモルガンは商品先物の50%程度を占めるに過ぎなかった、しかしながら2015Q1にはなんと96%を占めるに至った、市場専有と言っておかしくない。

 

We don't know what prompted JPM's derivative book to soar to such a never before seen amount, but the number most certainly looks abnormal on both an absolute and a relative basis, especially considering that no other banks boosted their particular derivative book with the same vigor.

JPモルガンがどうしてこんなに商品先物に力を入れるのかはわからない、しかし他の銀行は変わらずで、JPモルガンだけが突出して商品先物を買い占めている。

So what is going on here?

一体どうなっているんだろう?


We decided to dig down some more when we encountered something even more perplexing. Because whereas in previous quarterly updates, the OCC broke out the FX and Gold categories as separate derivative items as seen in this most recent chart from the Q4 update...

さらに詳細に調査してみた。OCCはFXとゴールドを2014Q4まではことなるカテゴリの先物として分離報告していた。

... in Q1, once again quite inexplicably, the OCC decided to lump these two products together, thus making any credible observation about the total notional outstanding of just gold derivatives, impossible! But wait, we thought that according to former Chairman Bernanke, gold anything but currency: is the OCC suddenly disagreeing with that assessment?


・・・・ところが2015Q1からOCCはこの二つのカテゴリを統合してしまった、ゴールドだけのデータを見ることができない! しかし待てよ、バーナンキのスピーチでの言葉を思い出そう、ゴールドは通貨そのものだ、と:OCCはこれまでの考え方を変えたのだろうか?

 

Furthermore, while in all previous iterations of the OCC's Table 9, gold derivative notionals by maturity were explicitly broken out as can be seen in this Q4, 2014 table below:

表9に示すようにこれまでOCCはゴールド先物の満期期間を明示的に表記してきた、たとえば2014Q4のように。

 

Starting in Q1, 2015 the "gold" section in Table 9 no longer exists (although we can see that while JPM cornered "commodities", it was Citi that had its total derivative notional of "precious metals" undergo a massive jump, also for reasons unknown).

2014Q1からは表9にゴールドの項目はない。(JPモルガンが「コモディティ」を買い占めていることは解る、シティも「貴金属」を急激に増やしている。)

One would almost think the OCC is hiding something as the demand of US commercial banks. So while we no longer know what just total gold derivatives outstanding is, for some unexplained, reason, we do know that the combined total of FX and gold just hit an all time high.

OCCが市中銀行の意向にそって情報開示方法を変えたのかもしれない。もはやゴールドだけの統計を見ることはできない、開示されているのはFXとゴールドを合算した取引が過去最高であることだ。

* * *

And while the OCC did all it could to mask the "gold" line item by lumping it with FX, it still kept "Precious Metals" as is, although we assume that this too will be lumped with FX and gold shortly.

It is this chart that shows something is truly odd when it comes to the US commercial bank industry's activity in the precious metals space.

OCCはFXと統合することでゴールドのみの数値を開示しなくなった、一方、「貴金属」開示している。将来これもFXやゴールドと統合されるかもしれない。下のチャートも奇妙だ、米国商業銀行の貴金属先物額を示している。

 

So in summary, this is what we do know: 要約すると我々が知ることができるのはこれだけだ:

  • in Q1, JPM cornered the commodity derivative market, with a total derivative exposure of just over of $4 trillion, an increase ot 1,691% from just $226 billion in one quarter!
  • 2014Q1にJPモルガンは商品先物を買い占めた、総額4TUSD,これはこれまでの平均226BUSDに較べれば1,691%の伸びになる!

What we don't know is: わからないことは

  • why did the OCC decide to effectively eliminate its gold derivative breakdown by lumping it with FX,
  • どうしてOCCはゴールド統計をFXと統合してしまったのか、
  • why there was a 237% increase in the total amount of precious metals (which include gold) contracts in the quarter, from $22.4 billion to $75.6 billion
  • どうして、貴金属(ゴールドを含む)先物取り引きが22BUSDから75BUSDと237%も増えたのか

We have sent an email requesting much needed clarification from the Office of the Currency Comptroller, although we are not holding our breath.

Office of the Currency Comptrollerにメールで問合せをしている、ただ回答はないだろうけどね。

Source: OCC’s Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities  First Quarter 2015

本文中の図が読みにくい時はこのPDFを見て下さい。


(訳注:KOL:石炭会社ETF、CORN:トウモロコシETF、URA:ウラン製造会社ETF、REMIX:レアアース関連会社ETF 等商品関連は10年来の底値となっています。 

Howard Marksが言うところの極端に嫌われている銘柄ということになります。

下のチャートはこのHPにアクセスした際にアップデートされますので、閲覧した時が最新のものです。)