金生産高は2015がピーク
金鉱山の発見ピークが1995にありその後有望な鉱山の発見がありません。そのため世界の金の生産量は2015年にピークを迎え、その後生産量が減少します。このため需給がタイトになります。
産金コストに関しては、金利まで考慮すると90%の産金会社は$1100-1200/ozよりも市場価格が下がると製造原価割れを起こします。
"Peak Gold Production" Hits In 2015
ゴールドの価格低下が継続しているため、最大のシェアを誇る中国の新興産金会社のみならず、他の従来からの産金会社ももうタオルを投げようとしていることを、数日前に報告しました。価格の低下は先物やETFのペーパーゴールドの売りが現物ゴールドの需要を上回るためです。
As UBS' Shanghai analyst Lin Haoxiang said, "Falling prices are
cutting into some high-cost private mines in China, while some big
miners chose to reduce costs by reducing jobs and capital investments."
As for the North American gold miner defaults, they have already started
with Canada's San Gold warning its creditors it is about to stuff them with a lot of unrepayable paper.
UBS
上海のLin
Haoxiangによれば、「価格低下により生産コストの高い中国私企業鉱山を操業停止に追い込み、大手の産金会社は一部の閉山と資本増強によりコスト低
減を試みています。」北米の産金会社では倒産するところも現れており、カナダのSan Goldのように債権者に未払い警告をだすところもあります。
However the unwind plays out, it is becoming increasingly clear that just as the crude oil market is set for some violent times ahead as producers lock into the defection phase of the Prisoner's Dilemma and flood the market with supply in an attempt to crush the weakest competition, so the gold market is set for many upheavals, the first of which, however, may be what Goldcorp defined in a recent slideshow as Peak Gold.
しかし巻き戻し現象が生じています。原油市場では「囚人のジレンマ」(囚人同士の協調による利益確保ができず)により供給過剰で弱者淘汰の大激変が生じています。一方ゴールド市場でも大変動が起ころうとしています、それはGoldCorp社のスライドショーで見られたPeak Gold現象です。
The only difference is that Goldcorp does not look at it from the perspective of Game Theory, where it is every miner (and their balance sheet) for themselves, but as a function of a 20 year lead-in development time following the period of peak gold discovery which took place in 1995. End result: "Gold market forecasters are expecting peak production in ~2015."
GoldCorpのレポートはゲーム理論によるものではありません。それは金鉱山の発見から生産までに20年の時間遅れがあるというものです。新たな金鉱山の発見は1995年にピークアウトしています。当然の帰結として「ゴールド生産のピークは〜2015年になる」というものです。
And then there are of course, the practical implications of gold miners who are living if not on borrowed time, then close to it. As the following chart of the gold industry's "all-in sustaining costs", when one takes net debt and the interest due on it into consideration, it becomes clear why gold has managed to find the $1050-$1200 region as support: drop the price of gold below that and suddenly 90% of the entire gold industry becomes unprofitable.
None of which means that gold can't - or want - drop below any given price, or slide into the triple digits. As we showed earlier, the new normal "markets" are so rigged - with the blessing of central banks no less - that attempting any rational predictions, especially when it comes to the one susbtance most hated by central bankers through the ages, is painfully meaningless.
And we are confident that before all is said and done, gold will surely plunge to even further manipulated lows because in the current market, where one can create paper gold futures contracts out of thin air, there is nothing to prevent just that. Which is why the following table showing gold miner net leverage will be quite useful in the years to come as the race to the prisoners' dilemma "defection" bottom - one in which only those with the best balance sheets survive - enters the final stages.
In any event when all is said and done, gold production will be far lower in a few years than where it is now. The only question is how will central bankers orchestrate a parallel decline for physical gold, because even with all the paper manipulation in the world, the supply and demand curves for the underlying commodity can be ignored only for so long.