As US equity indexes soared to all-time highs over the summer, traders were left in slackjawed wonder by stocks' resilience to every market negative, including a burgeoning trade war with China and outflows from nearly every ownership category.

At the time, analysts attributed this behavior to the robustness of the Trump economy and the profit boost of the Trump tax cuts. But we dared to posit another explanation that somehow slipped below Wall Street's radar: Citing research from Goldman and BofA, we pointed out that after notching a quarterly record in Q2, the pace of corporate buybacks accelerated in Q3. And while investors celebrated Apple's stunning market milestone, Goldman's David Kostin argued that markets were asking the wrong $1 trillion question.

この夏米国株式市場は過去最高となった当時、市場のマイナス要因が多い中でトレーダーは口を開けて呆れるばかりだった、中国との貿易戦争は高まり、ほとんどの投資家分類から資金流出していたのにだ。当時、アナリストはこの動きはトランプ経済の強さであり大幅減税のおかげだと解説していた。しかしZeroHedgeはあえてWall Streetが言及しない別の理解をしていた：GoldmanとBoAの調査を元にしているが、ZeroHedgeはQ2の四半期記録がさらにうわ待っていることを指摘した、Q3に自社株買いのベースが加速していたのだ。投資家がAppleの驚くべき市場の一里塚を称賛していたとき、GoldmanのDavid Kostinは市場の＄１Tの疑念を表明していた。

Four months later, the boost from Trump's tax cuts is fading, stocks can't keep a bid and S&P Dow Jones Indices just confirmed something we had long suspected (something that was driven home once again by Oracle's earnings report last night): Namely, that the most important factor in US markets this year has been the corporate bid. That's because, after clinching a quarterly records in Q1 and Q2, members of the S&P 500 went on to set another quarterly record for share repurchases in the Q3.

４ヶ月後、トランプ減税高価は薄れ、株式はS&P500もDJIも指数を維持できず、ZeroHedgeの長らくの疑念が確認された（昨夜のOracleの収益報告で再びこの疑念が蘇った）：すなわち、今年の米国株式市場の最重要要因は自社株買いだった。Q1,Q2と記録更新をした後、Q3にS&P500企業はさらに自社株買いの記録更新を達成した。

That's right: S&P revealed on Tuesday that quarterly S&P 500 share repurchases surpassed the $200 billion mark for the first time in Q3 o a record $203.8 billion. That's the third straight quarterly record for share buybacks, displacing the prior quarterly record of $190.6 billion, set during Q2 2018.

まさにそのとおり；S&PによるとS&P500の四半期自社株買いがQ3に初めて＄２００Bを超え、＄２０３．８Bとなった。３四半期連続して自社株買いが記録更新をしており、２０１８Q2の＄１９０．６Bを上回った。

This year's Q3 figure represents an increase of 57.7% from the $129.2 billion from Q3 2017. Through the end of the third quarter, buybacks are up 52.6% to $583.4 billion from the prior year's $382.4 billion, leaving the annual total just 1% shy of the previous annual record of $589.1 billion set in 2007. And that's with another quarter left to report (though, judging by the price action, it's probably fair to assume that the pace of purchases has slackened somewhat, though Boeing and Johnson & Johnson each announced buybacks this week to boost their sagging shares).

今年のQ3の値は２０１７Q3の＄１２９．２Bから５７．７％増えた。年初来Q3末までの総額は５２．６％増え、＄５８３．４Bになった、２００７年の通年最高値＄５８９．１Bまであと１％に迫っている。まだ１四半期残っている（ただし、株価動向からすると買い取りペースは弱まっているだろう、ただしBoeingとJohnson&Johnsonはは今週株価対策で買い増しをアナウンスしている）。

For the 12-month period ending September 2018, S&P 500 companies spent a total of $720.4 billion on buybacks, up 39.1% from $517.7 billion during the corresponding period from 2017.

２０１８年９月までの１２か月をみると、S&P500構成銘柄全体で＄７２０．４Bの自社株買いを行った、前年同時期の＄５１７．７から３９．１％増えている。

The total shareholder return via buybacks and regular cash dividends increased 5.7% to $319.5 billion, up from $302.2 billion for Q2 2018 and up 26.2% from the $234.6 billion for Q3 2017. For the 12-month period ending September 2018, shareholder return totaled $1.166 trillion, up 25.2% from $931.9 billion for the 12-month period ending September 2017.

自社株買いによる株主リターンと通常の配当を合わせると５．７％増えて＄３１９．５Bとなった、２０１８Q2は＄３０２．２B、そして２０１７Q3の＄２３４．６から２６．２％増えている。２０１８年９月までの１２か月では、株主リターン総額は＄１．１６６Tとなり前年動機の＄９３１．９Bから２５．２％増えた。

Meanwhile, the percentage of companies that saw a substantial reduction in their float (at least 4% year-over-year) climbed to 17.7%, up from the prior quarter's 15.4%. That's the highest since the 19.4% posted in Q4 2016.

それと同時に、流動株数が減った企業の割合（少なくともYoYで４％）は１７．７％にもなった、前四半期は１５．４％だった。２０１６Q4の１９．４％以来の多さだ。

And what's driving these buybacks? Simple: Just as we  anticipated, companies are using their tax-cut savings to buy back their shares.

そした一体何がこの自社株を流行らしているか？ZeroHedgeが懸念したとおり、企業は減税で得た資金を自社株に費やしている。

"Companies have used their tax savings to push up discretionary buybacks and boost earnings through significantly reduced share counts," said Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Adding to the impact, Q4 average issue prices have declined 3.3% which would increase the number of shares a company can buy with the same expenditure and further increase the EPS tailwind."

「企業は減税で得た資金を自社株に注ぎ込み一株あたりの利益を増やしている、」とHoward Silverblattは言う、彼はS&P DJI指数の上級アナリストだ。「このインパクトに加え、Q4の平均発行価格は３．３％減った、ということは同じ予算では多量の株式を変えるわけで、さらにEPSの見かけを良くする。」

These companies spent the most on buybacks during Q3:

Q3に自社株買いを大きく増やしたのはこういう銘柄だ：

• Qualcomm led in buybacks, spending $21.2 billion in Q3 2018, ranking third on the top 20 S&P 500 historical list, up from $1.1 billion spent for Q2 2018

• Apple reported $19.4 billion in Q3 2018, down from $21.9 billion spent for Q2 2018, as the quarter ranked fifth highest historically; Apple holds seven of the top eight positions for buybacks historically, spending $224.2 billion over the past five-years.

• Oracle: $10.3 billion for Q3 2018, up from $5.0 billion for Q2 2018 and $0.8 billion for Q3 2017.  

• Wells Fargo: $7.4 billion for Q3 2018, up from $2.9 billion for Q2 2018 and up from $2.6 billion for Q3 2017.

• Cisco Systems: $5.4 billion for Q3 2018, down from $6.1 billion for Q2 2018 and $2.0 billion for Q3 2017.

The big question is - with the cost of funding soaring in Q4, will the C-suite keep running their firms' leverages to ever higher highs to ensure their remuneration packages remain full...

大きな疑問はーーQ4に資金調達コストが急増したことだ、取締役たちは自らの企業のレバレッジをかつて無いほどに増やすことで自らの報酬を目いっぱいに得ている・・・