While most attention among global onlookers is focused on the almost unbelievable divergence between US and Chinese stocks this year, actual 'real' Chinese import and export data suggest President Trump is far from winning this trade war... in fact it's never been worse.


世界中の野次馬が今年の米国株と中国株の乖離に注目する中で、中国の輸出入「実」データが示唆するのは、この貿易戦争でトランプ勝利は程遠い・・・かつて無いほどに悪化している。


Headline trade figures show China exports to the rest of the world grew at 14.5% YoY in USD terms (almost double expectations) and imports rose 14.3% YoY in USD terms (below expectations and well below August's 20% rise).


貿易データをみると、中国の輸出はYoYドル表示で14.5%増え(予想の倍)一方輸入はドル表記でYoY14.3%増えている(予想よりも少なく、8月の20%増よりはずいぶんと少ない)。



However, all eyes were on the US-China interaction and that's where the fun and games begin...


しかしながら、衆目の注視は米中相互貿易であり、厄介なことが起こり始めている・・


Chinese exports to the US rose 14.0% YoY in USD terms - the most since February - but, Chinese imports from the US actually dropped 1.2% YoY in USD terms


中国の対米輸出はUSDでYoY14.0%増えたーー2月以来の大きな増加だーーしかし、中国の対米輸入はUSD YoYで1.2%下落した。


That pushed China's exports to US to a new record high and saw China's imports from the US sink to 6-month lows... sending China's trade surplus with the US to a new record high...


というわけで、中国の対米輸出は新記録高値となり、対米輸入は6か月ぶりの低位だ・・・結果として中国の対米黒字は新高値となった・・・


As Bloomberg notes, China’s exports rebounded, while imports remained robust, thanks to strong demand at home and abroad despite worsening relations with the U.S.


ブルームバーグによれば、中国の輸出がリバウンドし、一方で輸入は堅調なままだ、米中関係は悪化しているが需要は強い。


China’s exports have been growing robustly all year, in the face of rising tariffs and increasing uncertainty over relations with the U.S. Companies front-loading trade to get ahead of the expected tariff increases might explain part of the growth in the third quarter, but that would likely wane as the relationship between the world’s two biggest economies deteriorates.


通年で中国の輸出は堅調に成長している、関税増加に伴い不確実性が増す中で米国企業は税率増加前に駆け込み輸入をしており、これがQ3の対米輸出増加となるかもしれない、しかしこれも世界二台経済大国の関連は弱まるだろう。

"Chinese exports look set to weaken in the coming quarters as global growth slows," wrote economists from Capital Economics in a note. "U.S. tariffs will also be a drag, although front-loading by US importers mean that much of the impact won’t be felt until next year."


「世界経済の成長鈍化に伴い、中国の輸出は今後弱まるだろう」とCapital Economicsのエコノミストは主張する。「米国の関税が状況を悪化するだろうが、駆け込み輸入のおかげで来年までその影響は顕在化しないだろう。」

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In other words, by the metric that President Trump judges the trade relationship with China - things have never been worse...ever!


言い換えると、数値を見る限り、トランプ大統領は中国との貿易関係はーーかつて無く悪いものだと判断する!


However, trade growth may slow in the fourth quarter, the customs administration’s spokesperson said at a press conference, while cuts to import tariffs are boosting inbound shipments.


しかしながら、Q4には差し引き輸出増も鈍化するかもしれない、と記者会見で税関責任者は述べた、中国の輸入関税削減が輸入を増やすと思われるからだ。