“Everything eventually reverts to the mean.” – Frank Holmes
「何でもやがて平均回帰する。」ーーFrank Holmes
Weekend Reading: Mathematical Adjustments Don’t Change Reality
Written by Lance Roberts | Aug, 3, 2018Yesterday, I discussed the mathematical adjustment to the GDP calculation that added $1 trillion to economic growth. To wit:
昨日、私はGDP算出方法調整について議論した、結果として$1Tの経済成長が加算された。見てみよう:
“Where did a bulk of the change come from? A change in the calculation of “real” GDP from using 2009 dollars to 2012 dollars which boosted growth strictly from a lower rate of inflation. As noted by the BEA:
「一体どこから変更が起きたのだろう?「実」GDP算出に際し2009年のドルから2012年のドルに変えた、インフレ率が下がることで成長が増えた。BEA経済分析局の主張では:
“For 2012-2017, the average rate of change in the prices paid by U.S. residents, as measured by the gross domestic purchasers’ price index, was 1.2 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than in the previously published estimates.”
「2012−2017において、米国民の支払う物価の平均変化率は、国内PPIでみると1.2%だった、これまで開示されていたものよりも0.1%低かった。」
Of course, when you ask the average household about “real inflation,” in terms of healthcare costs, insurance, food, energy, etc., they are likely to give you quite an earful that the cost of living is substantially higher than 1.2%. Nonetheless, the chart below shows “real” GDP both pre- and post-2018 revisions.”
当然のことながら、平均的家計の「実インフレ」をみると、医療費、保険、食料、エネルギー等々、どれも生活必需項目だが1.2%より高い上昇率であることを耳にするだろう。ほかでもなく、下のチャートに示す「実」GDPに関し、2018改定の前後の値を示す。」
Importantly, the entire revision is almost entirely due to a change in the inflation rate. On a nominal basis, there was virtually no real change at all. In other words, stronger economic growth came from a mathematical adjustment rather than increases in actual economic activity.
大切なことは、改定全体はインフレ率の見直しによるものだ。名目上では、ほとんど変化はない。言い換えると、強い経済成長というが、実際の経済活動からではなく数字の調整によるものだ。
The change to a lower inflation rate also boosted disposable incomes and personal consumption expenditures which also boosted the savings rate. However, what doesn’t change is economic reality. The chart below shows what we call “real DPI” or rather it is disposable incomes (which is gross income minus taxes) less spending. What we have left over after paying our bills, healthcare costs, food, tuition, etc. is what is really disposable for spending on other “stuff” or “saving.”
インフレ率を低く変更することで裁量収入や個人消費が増えた、また貯蓄率も増えた。しかしながら、変わらないのは経済の実態だ。下のチャートに示すのはいわゆる「実DPI」、裁量収入(総収入から税金を差し引いたもの)から支出を差し引いたもの、だ。医療費、食料、授業料等々を支払った後にのこるもので、これが「裁量的支出」や「貯蓄」にまわる。
Despite the adjusted bump in savings, consumer activity continues to remain weak. Given that roughly 70% of the economic calculation comes from personal consumption, watching consumer activity is a good leading indicator of where the economy is headed next. PCE figures also suggest the recent bump in economic growth is likely transitory. Looking back historically, GDP tends to follow PCE and not vice-versa.
貯蓄に山が見えるが、消費活動は引き続き弱いものだ。経済活動の70%は個人消費によるもので、消費行動を見ることで今後の経済の先行指標となる。PCEをみると最近の経済成長の山は一時的なものであることがわかる。歴史を振り返ると、GDPはPCEを追いかける傾向にある、逆ではない。
More importantly, weaker economic growth rates will also be met with much tougher year-over-year comparisons on corporate earnings which likely further hamper equity returns in the near term.
もっと大切なことは、弱い経済成長と相まり企業収益がYoYで厳しい状況にあり、短期的に株価上昇の妨げとなるだろう。
As we summed up yesterday:
昨日の要約はこういう具合だ:
“As an investor, it is important to remember that in the end corporate earnings and profits are a function of the economy and not the other way around. Historically, GDP growth and revenues have grown at roughly equivalent rates.
「投資家として、大切なことは結局企業収益は経済状況を反映するもので、他のことに依存はしない。歴史的にみると、GDP成長率と売上成長率はだいたい同じような割合になる。
Forget the optimism surrounding “’Trumpenomics’ and focus on longer-term economic trends which have been declining for the past 30+ years. The economic trend is a function of a growing burden of debt, increasing demographic headwinds and, very importantly, declining productivity growth. I see little to make me believe these are changing in a meaningful way.”
「Trumpenomics」のような楽観的雰囲気は忘れることだ、そして注目すべきは長期的な経済トレンドだ、これはもう30年超下落している。軽税の傾向は増え続ける債務負荷、人口動態の向かい風に依存している、そしてもっと大切なのは生産性が低下していることだ。これらの傾向が有意に変化しているとは私には思えない。」
Changing the math doesn’t change reality.
数字をいじったところで現実は変わらない。
Just something to think about as you catch up on your weekend reading list.
週末にはこういう記事を読むが良い。
Economy & Fed
- What The GDP Report Doesn’t Tell You by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via Linked-In
- Trump Tipped His Hand by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
- QE Turns 10 by Stephen Roach via Project Syndicate
- Did Trump Actually Create An Economic Boom? by James Pethokoukis via The Week
- National Debt Issue About To Roar Back To Life by Maya McGuinness via CNN
- “Where’s Our Bailout” by Ed Kilgore via NewYork Magazine
- The “New Normal” … Not by Richard Rahn via The Washington Times
- GDP Bump Was Not Due To Trump by Jordon Weissmann via Slate
- US Trade Policy: Stupid & Hypocritical by Mike “Mish” Shedlock via TheMaven
- $100 Billion Tax Cut For The Wealthy by Tyler Durden via Zerohedge
- US At Risk Of Losing Trade War With China by Joseph Stiglitz via Project Syndicate
- GDP Report Proves Tump’s Policies Are Working by Jonathon Trugman via NY Post
- Socialism Rises From The Grave by Richard Ebeling via FEE
- The Biggest Economic Booms By President by Justin Fox via Bloomberg
- What Will Cause The Next Recession? by Neil Irwin via NYT
Markets
- Morgan Stanley: It’s Different This Time by Tyler Durden via Zerohedge
- Cliff Hangers by Eric Cinnamond
- Investing Tips From Warren Buffett by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch
- Hussman: Market Will Drop By 50% by Sue Chang via MarketWatch
- Tech Rally Getting Extended by Dana Lyons via The Lyons Share
- Not So Predictable by Jonathan Clements via Humble Dollar
- Gold Could Be In A Prolonged Tailspin by Simon Constable via Barron’s
- Investors May Cheer Q2 Earnings But Beware Q3 by Ryan Vlastelica via MarketWatch
- A 2019 Recession Is The Most Likely Outcome by Paul Kasriel via Financial Sense
- The Guy Betting Against Elon Musk by Mark Decambre via MarketWatch
- What Happened To Summer Doldrums? by Liz Ann Sonders via Charles Schwab
- Warning Signs Are Very Pronounced by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com
Most Read On RIA
- The Problem With Passive by L. Roberts, M. Lebowitz & J. Coumarianos
- Are Market Generals Leading Us To War by Michael Lebowitz
- We May Be In A Topping Process by Doug Kass
- What Is The “Williams %R” by Lance Roberts
- Tariff Turbulence, Mollified Market by John Coumarianos
- The U.S. Household Wealth Bubble Part 2 by Jesse Colombo
- Was Q2-GDP Really All That Extraordinary? by Lance Roberts
Research / Interesting Reads
- Where Are The 17,000 Cars Tesla “Produced” by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street
- Bank Squeeze Consumers On Savings & Rates by Patrick Hill via The Progressive Ensign
- $5 Trillion: Pensions Are Doomed by Tyler Durden via Zerohedge
- New Housing Play: Long Distance Landlord by Andrea Riquier via MarketWatch
- Playing For A Yield Curve Inversion by Seth Levine via The Integrating Investor
- Are Stock Buybacks Starving The Economy by Annie Lowrey via The Atlantic
- Child Care And Low-Income Households by Julia Henly via NYT
- Brain Gain: Why You Can’t Just Be A Savant by Darold Treffert via Scientific American
- Roth Or Traditional 401-k? by IBD
- Retiree’s Misconceptions About Finances by Dan Moisand via FA Mag
- Mind The Trap Door (Understanding Valuations) by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
“Everything eventually reverts to the mean.” – Frank Holmes
Questions, comments, suggestions – please email me.
Lance Roberts
Lance Roberts is a Chief Portfolio Strategist/Economist for Clarity Financial. He is also the host of “The Lance Roberts Show” and Chief Editor of the “Real Investment Advice” website and author of “Real Investment Daily” blog and “Real Investment Report“. Follow Lance on Facebook, Twitter and Linked-In