Big US Stocks’ Q1’18 Fundamentals
Adam Hamilton May 11, 2018 3612 Words
The mega-cap stocks that dominate the US markets are just wrapping up a truly-extraordinary earnings season. Naturally this first quarter under Republicans’ new corporate tax cuts fueled surging profits. But sales were up big too, which is no mean feat for massive companies. With sustained growth at this torrid pace impossible, peak-earnings fears are mounting. And valuations stayed extremely expensive exiting Q1.
米国市場を左右する超大型時価総額銘柄がほんとうにすごい収益を開示した。当然のことながら、この共和党による法人減税がQ1収益を急増させた。しかし売上も大きいわけで、至難の業というわけではない。この加熱した成長を持続することはできず、収益の天井が意識されている。そしてQ1バリュエーションは極端に高価なものだ。
Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports. Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs contain the best fundamental data available to investors and speculators. They dispel all the sentimental distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing the underlying hard fundamental realities.
公開企業は年に4回決算開示をする。米国ではSECの要求に応じて10−Q書式で投資家にファンダメンタルズを開示する。これを見ることで、株価をめぐる心理的な歪みを取り除くことができる、株価の背景にある確実なファンダメンタルズの現実を把握できる。
The deadline for filing 10-Qs for “large accelerated filers” is 40 days after fiscal quarter-ends. The SEC defines this as companies with market capitalizations over $700m. That currently includes every single stock in the flagship S&P 500 stock index, which includes the biggest and best American companies. As Q1’18 ended, the smallest SPX stock had a market cap of $2.1b which was 1/410th the size of leader Apple.
大企業の10−Q提出締切は四半期終了後40日以内だ。SECの定義では時価総額$700M以上となる。現在ではS&P500採用銘柄すべてがこの範疇に入る、米国優良大企業だ。2018Q1終了時点においてSPXで最小資本金は$2.1Bであり、最大Appleの1/410だ。
The middle of this week marked 39 days since the end of calendar Q1, so almost all of the big US stocks of the S&P 500 have reported. The exceptions are companies running fiscal quarters out of sync with calendar quarters. Walmart, Home Depot, and Cisco have fiscal quarters ending in April instead of the usual March, so their “Q1” results weren’t out yet as of this Wednesday. They’ll arrive in the coming weeks.
今週半ばでQ1終了後39日がたっており、S&P500採用銘柄の殆どが決算開示を済ましている。例外なのは四半期が暦とずれている企業だ。Walmart , Home DepotそしてCiscoは会計年度が4月末に終わる、そのため「Q1」決算は水曜時点でまだ開示されていない。来週にも開示されるだろう。
The S&P 500 (SPX) is the world’s most-important stock index by far, weighting the best US companies by market capitalization. So not surprisingly the world’s largest and most-important ETF is the SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF which tracks the SPX. This week it had net assets of a staggering $256.7b! The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF also track the SPX with $149.9b and $88.5b of net assets.
S&P500は世界で最も重要な株式指標だ、米国の最良企業を時価総額平均している。驚くべきことではないが、世界最大最重要のETFはSPXを追跡するSPYだ。今週時点で時価総額はなんと$256.7Bにもなる!SPXを追跡するiShare ETFの時価総額は$149.9B、VanguardのETFは$88.5Bとなる。
The vast majority of investors own the big US stocks of the SPX, as they are the top holdings of nearly all investment funds. So if you are in the US markets at all, including with retirement capital, the fortunes of the big US stocks are very important for your overall wealth. Thus once a quarter after earnings season it’s essential to check in to see how they are faring fundamentally. Their results also portend stock-price trends.
圧倒的多数の投資家がSPX構成銘柄を持っており、どの投資ファンドもこれらを最大資産としている。あなたが米国株をもっているにしろ、年金基金も当時られており、米国大型株の行方は皆さんの資産に大きく影響する。しかるに四半期終了後にそのファンダメンタルズがどうかと確認をするのはきほんてきなことだ。その結果が株式トレンドの行く先を示している。
Unfortunately my small financial-research company lacks the manpower to analyze all 500 SPX stocks in SPY each quarter. Support our business with enough newsletter subscriptions, and I would gladly hire the people necessary to do it. For now we’re digging into the top 34 SPX/SPY components ranked by market capitalization. That’s an arbitrary number that fits neatly into the tables below, but a commanding sample.
残念なことに私の小さな金融調査会社ではSPX構成全500銘柄を四半期ごとに調査する人手がない。有料記事購読者が支えてくれるなら私は喜んでもっと人を採用するのだが。今のところ、私どもはSPX上位34銘柄を深く調査することにする。この結果を下の表に示す、これでも十分なサンプル数だ。
As of the end of Q1’18 on March 29th, these 34 companies accounted for a staggering 41.7% of the total weighting in SPY and the SPX itself! These are the mightiest of American companies, the widely-held mega-cap stocks everyone knows and loves. For comparison, it took the bottom 426 SPX companies to match its top 34 stocks’ weighting. The entire stock markets greatly depend on how the big US stocks are doing.
2018Q1終了時において、これらの34銘柄の時価総額はSPX全体のなんと41.7%をも占めている!これらは誰でもよく知っている巨大企業の銘柄だ。残り426銘柄と上位34銘柄の時価総額は似たようなものだ。株式市場全体はこの米国大企業の行方に依存している。
Every quarter I wade through the 10-Q SEC filings of these top SPX companies for a ton of fundamental data I dump into a spreadsheet for analysis. The highlights make it into these tables below. They start with each company’s symbol, weighting in the SPX and SPY, and market cap as of the final trading day of Q1’18. That’s followed by the year-over-year change in each company’s market capitalization, a critical metric.
毎四半期、私はSPX上位銘柄の10−Q書式を詳しく調べ多量のデータをスプレッドシートに転写する。その主要部分を下の表に示している。まずは銘柄シンボル、SPX構成比重、そして
2018Q1終了時の時価総額だ。その後、各銘柄のYoY時価総額変化、これは大切な指標だ。
Major US corporations have been engaged in a wildly-unprecedented stock-buyback binge ever since the Fed forced interest rates to deep artificial lows during 2008’s stock panic. Thus the appreciation in their share prices also reflects shrinking shares outstanding. Looking at market-cap changes instead of just underlying share-price changes effectively normalizes out stock buybacks, offering purer views of value.
2008年の株式混乱でFEDが金利を極端に安くして以来、米国大手企業は極端な自社株買いを行っている。しかるに株価上昇と同時に発行株数が減っている。時価総額変化を見ることで自社株買い効果を相殺できる、純粋に株式の価値をはんだんできる。
That’s followed by quarterly sales along with their YoY changes. Top-line revenues are one of the best indicators of businesses’ health. While profits can be easily manipulated quarter-to-quarter by playing with all kinds of accounting estimates, sales are tougher to artificially inflate. Ultimately sales growth is necessary for companies to expand, as bottom-line earnings growth driven by cost-cutting is inherently limited.
その次は四半期売上とそのYoY変化。決算書最上段の売上はビジネスの健全性を示す最良の指標だ。収益は四半期ごとに各種会計手法で操作できるが、売上は意図的に操作できない。
Operating cash flows are also important, showing how much capital companies’ businesses are actually generating. Using cash to make more cash is a core tenet of capitalism. While most of these elite US companies reported Q1’18 OCFs as they should, some obscured quarterly results by lumping them in with the past 6 or 9 months. So these tables only include Q1 operating cash flows if specifically reported.
営業利益も重要だ、当該企業が本業でどれだけ稼いでいるかが解る。資本が資本を生み出すと言うのが資本主義の根幹部分だ。米国優良企業の多くは2018Q1営業利益を開示しているが、この四半期決算を過去6から9ヶ月のデータで歪めている場合もある。そのためこの表ではQ1決算に限り表示している。
Next are the actual hard quarterly earnings that must be reported to the SEC under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Late in bull markets, companies tend to use fake pro-forma earnings to downplay real GAAP results. These are derided as EBS earnings, Everything but the Bad Stuff! Companies often arbitrarily ignore certain expenses on a pro-forma basis to artificially boost their profits, which is very misleading.
その次はSECが要求するGAAC会計基準に基づいて四半期収益だ。ブル相場の遅くになると、企業はGAAPを軽んじた偽の形式的収益を開示する傾向にある。これらはEBS収益としてバカにされる、Everything but the Bad Stuff ! 企業によっては意図的に特定費用を無視して形式的に収益を水増しする、これはとても誤解を引き起こすものだ。
While we’re also collecting the earnings-per-share data Wall Street loves, it’s more important to consider total profits. Stock buybacks are executed to manipulate EPS higher, because the shares-outstanding denominator of its calculation shrinks as shares are repurchased. Raw profits are a cleaner measure, again effectively neutralizing the impacts of stock buybacks. They better reflect underlying business performance.
私どもはWall Streetが愛してやまないPERも記載するが、もっと大切なのは全収益だ。自社株買いはEPSを高めに操作するためのもので、というのも、自社株買いにより計算時に利用される発行株式をすくなくするからだ。生の収益は良い指標だ、自社株買いで操作されることがない。ビジネスパフォーマンスをよく反映している。
Finally the trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio as of the end of Q1’18 is noted. TTM P/Es look at the last four reported quarters of actual GAAP profits compared to prevailing stock prices. They are the gold-standard metric for valuations. Wall Street often intentionally obscures these hard P/Es by using the fictional forward P/Es instead, which are literally mere guesses about future profits that often prove far too optimistic.
最後に示すのが2018Q1終了時のTTM PERだ。TTM PERには直近4四半期の実際のGAAP収益を株価と比べたものだ。バリュエーション指標としては最良のものだ。Wall Streetはたびたび意図的にこの実績PERを予想PERで置き換える、これは文字通り単なる予想であり多くの場合楽観的な予想に基づいている。
As expected given the largest corporate tax cuts in US history going live, the big US stocks generally reported spectacular Q1’18 results. Sales, OCFs, and earnings surged dramatically! But much of this tax-cut windfall was anticipated, as valuations remained dangerously high at the end of last quarter. It’s hard to imagine such blistering growth of such enormous mega-cap companies being able to persist for long.
予想通りに、米国市場始まって以来の大幅法人減税で、米国株式は目もくらむ2018Q1決算を開示した。売上、営業利益、そして収益は劇的に増加した!しかしこの法人減税はタナボタであり、全四半期末時点でのバリュエーションは引き続き危険なほどに高いものだ。巨大企業がこのような劇的な成長を持続するとは想像できない。