February is traditionally not a good month for the US government income statement: that's when it usually runs a steep monthly deficit as tax returns drain the Treasury's coffers. However, this February was worse than usual, because as spending rose and tax receipts slumped, the US deficit jumped to $215 billion, the biggest February deficit since 2012.

歴史的に２月は米国政府歳入が良くない：そのためにたいてい税収不足を国債発行で補う。 しかしながら、今年の２月はいつもよりもさらに悪かった、というのも歳出増と税収減で、米国財政赤字は＄２１５Bにもなった、２月の赤字としては２０１２年以来のものだ。

According to the CBO, receipts declined by 9.4% from last year as tax refunds rose and the new withholding tables went into effect. On a rolling 12 month basis, government receipts rose only 2.1%, a clear slowdown after rising 3.1% in December after contracting as recently as March 2017. At this rate of decline, the US will post a decline in Federal Receipts by mid-2018.

CBO連邦政府予算局の報告によると、昨年に比べ税収が９．４％減っている、税金還付と新たな税制効果による。１２か月移動平均でみると、政府歳入増加はわずか２．１％だ、１２月に３．１％の増加だったことからすると明らかな下落で、２０１７年３月の縮小以来のものだ。この割合で下落が続くと、米国政府は２０１８年半ばに歳入不足を宣言することに成るだろう。

Outlays meanwhile rose by 2% due to higher Social Security and Medicare benefits rose and additional funds were released for disaster relief.

社会福祉や医療費の増価そして災害復旧費用の追加で予算が２％増えている。

Putting these two in context, in Fiscal 2000, Treasury receipts in the Oct-Feb period were $741.8 bn, nearly matching outlays of $741.6 bn. In Fiscal 2018 meanwhile, receipts in the Oct-Feb period are $1.286 tn while outlays are $1.677 tn. Receipts are growing an average 4% per year, while outlays are rising an average 7%.

これら双方の出来事を勘案すると、会計年度２０００において財務省は１０月から２月までで＄７４１．８Bの歳入があり、＄７４１．６Bの歳出に見合っている、一方会計年度２０１８では、１０月から２月の歳入は＄１，２８６Tの一方で歳出は＄１，６７７Tとなる。歳入は年平均４％で増える一方で、歳出は年平均７％で増えている。

Source: Reuters

Here is a snapshot of February and Fiscal YTD receipts and outlays.

ここに示すのは２月と会計年初来の歳入と歳出だ。

But most troubling was the jump in interest on the public debt, which in the month of February jumped to $28.434 billion, up 10.6% from last February and the most for any February on record. In the first five months of this fiscal year, that interest is $203.234 bn, up 8.0% y/y and the most on record for any Oct-Feb period. The sharp increase comes as the US public debt rapidly approaches $21 trillion. And with the effective interest rate now rising with every passing month, it is virtually assured that this number will keep rising for the months ahead.

しかし最大の問題は公的債務の利払いが急騰したことだ、２月には＄２８，４３４Bへと急騰した、昨年２月から１０．６％も増えている、そして過去のどの２月よりも多い。今会計年度の当初５か月で、利払いは＄２０３．２３４BでありYoYで８．０％の増価だった、これも過去のどの１０月ー２月期よりも大きい。利払い急増は米国債務が急速に＄２１Tに近づいているからだ。そして実行金利は今や毎月上昇している、今後もこの数字が増え続けるのはほぼ確実だろう。

Source: Reuters