“Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.” – Warren Buffett
「リスクというのは、自らの行動の意味合いを理解できない時におきるものだ。」ーーWarren Buffett
Weekend Reading: What You Do Matters Most
Written by Lance Roberts | Jan, 12, 2018Confidence is soaring…everywhere.
信頼感に溢れる・・・いたるところで。
In last weekend’s newsletter, we showed multiple charts of surging investor confidence all at, or near, record levels. But while investors are indeed confident about the markets over the coming year, business and manufacturing surveys (sentiment) have also surged to near record levels. The National Federation Of Independent Businesses (NFIB) just released their December survey which showed a near record level of confidence for business owners.
先週末の記事に書いたが、我々は投資家信頼が急増している多くのチャートを示した、記録的なものだ。しかし投資家は今年の市場に対して信頼を示しているが、ビジネスや製造心理調査もまた記録的な高みに有る。National Federation of Independent Businessesが彼らの12月調査を開示した、ビジネスオーナーの信頼感は記録的なレベルだ。
One thing to notice is that spikes in optimism have generally occurred near peaks in the market.
Why should that be the case?
注意すべきことがひとつある、楽観論の急増は記録的なものだ。どうして注意すべきだろう?
The reason is simple, exuberance tends to be disappointed by reality. When you dig down into the NFIB survey what small business owners are “saying,” and “doing,” are two different things.
その理由はシンプルで、元気いっぱいのトレンドは現実によって失望に変わるからだ。NFIB調査を深く調べると小規模事業者が「言っていること」と「やっていること」は別物であることに気づく。
For example, while business owners “SAY” they are optimistic about the economy currently, when it comes to committing their capital they are not nearly as brash. In fact, their level of planned capital expenditures continues to run at levels more normally associated with weak, or recessionary, environments.
たとえば、ビジネスオーナーが、現在の経済状況に楽観的だと「言っている」が、彼らの資金の当時方は決して大胆なものではない。実際、彼らの企業支出計画レベルは引き続き、弱く景気後退があるときに普通にあるレベルのままだ。
What about consumers? They are optimistic as well.
では消費者はどうか?彼らもまた楽観的だ。
Well, maybe not as much as you think. The survey shows that while business owners “SAY” sales should be improving, their biggest concern, which is spiking higher, is “poor sales.”
まあ、皆さんが考えるほどに多いわけではない。調査によると、ビジネスオーナーは売上が改善するはずだと「言う」、それが彼らの最大の懸念だからだ、これが高まりつつある、ということは「売上がおぼつかない」ということだ。
Furthermore, notice that while there has been an immense amount of “chatter” about how the recent tax reform has lowered the burden on business which will lead to a surge in economic growth, etc., the level of concern over the amount of taxes being paid has budged from post-recessionary levels. While taxes were recently lowered, the “cost” of labor is rising which will absorb, for small business owners, much of the impact of any tax cut received.
更に言うと、注意してほしいが、世の中の「論調」は最近の減税でビジネスが改善され景気が上向くというものばかりだが、皆が支払う税額のレベルは景気後退後のレベルのままだ。税額は最近低減されたが、「労働コスト」は上昇しつつありこれが打ち消すだろう、特に小規模事業者にとっては減税効果の多くは相殺されるだろう。
There is also a big difference between what the “hope” sales will be and what “actually” occurs. With such high levels of expectations currently, the risk of disappointment in future sales volumes is elevated.
そこには売上に関する「期待」と「現実」におきていることには大きな乖離がある。現在は大きな期待が高まっているが、将来の売上における失望リスクが高まっている。
While there is much “hope” that economic growth will boom this coming year due to regulatory and tax changes, history suggests the current levels of “economic optimism” are also likely to be disappointed.
規制緩和と税制改革で今後経済が成長するという多くの「期待」はあるが、歴史の教えるところでは、減税のレベル程度の「楽観的経済見通し」というのは失望に変わることが多い。
Ultimately, for the markets and for investors, it is what you DO that matters the most.
最終的には、市場や投資家として、それこそ最大の懸念なのだ。
Investors are currently set up for disappointment on many fronts over the next 12-24 months. While “exuberance” currently reigns, and investors are piling into risk equity with reckless abandon, the markets will continue to push higher.
多くの局面で今後12−24か月にわたり、投資家は失望に直面する仕掛けができている。現在は「熱狂」が支配しているために、投資家は見境無くリスク資産を積み上げ、市場は相場をお仕上げ続けている。
Just be aware that “reality” will eventually set in.
「現実」はやがてどうなるかに気づいてほしい。
Here is your weekend reading list.
週末にこういう記事を読むことを勧める。
Economy & Fed
- The Fed Needs A Better Target by Caroline Baum via MarketWatch
- Moody’s Warns Washington Of Tax Cuts by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- Fed Pays Banks $30 Billion On Excess Reserves by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street
- Sequester Relief Is Too Costly by Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget
- Households May Rue The Binge Of 2017 by Danielle DiMartino-Booth via SeekingAlpha
- For Trump Much Rides On 2018 by Robert Samuelson via RCM
- Humor & Facts Would Improve Discourse by Richard Rahn via Washington Times
- Demographics Point To Lower U.S. Growth by Edward Harrison via Credit Writedowns
- Ready Or Not For The Next Recession by Barry Eichengreen via Project Syndicate
Markets
- GS: This Has Only Happened Twice In History by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- How To Survive A Market Bubble by James Mackintosh via Streetwise
- The Dow’s Fastest Milestone Leap In History by Mark DeCambre via MarketWatch
- This Composite Index Bombed In 2016 by Simon Maierhofer via MarketWatch
- The Bond Market Singularity by Sven Henrich via Northman Trader
- When Small Companies Are Worth It by Simon Constable via US News
- Wall Street Is Underestimating Tax Cuts by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch
- Invested, Emotionally In Stocks by Gil Weinrich via Seeking Alpha
- Start Prepping For A Correction by Michael Kahn via Barron’s
- CB’s Ready To Pop The “Everything Bubble” by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market
- Risk Blind & The Great Bear Market Coming by Danielle Park CFA via SeekingAlpha
- MYTH: Stocks Don’t Peak ‘Til Yield Curve Inverts by Daniel Moore via SeekingAlpha
- Survival Tactics For A Hypervalued Market by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
- The Only Benchmark Of Wealth by Michael Lebowitz via RIA
- It’s Always 20/20 In The Rear View Mirror by Doug Kass via RIA
Cryptocurrency Mania
- How Bitcoin Could Change Your Life by Hayley Tsukayama via WaPo
- How Bitcoin Is Like/Unlike A Gold Standard by Larry White via Alt-M
- Why Merrill Lynch Said No To Crypto by Jonathon Trugman via NY Post
- Bitcoin’s Economic Lessons by Matt O’Brien via Washington Post
- Crypto Is Strangling Innovation by Jon Evans via Tech Crunch
- SEC Warns Bitcoin Investors At Risk by Reuters
- Everything You Need To Know About Crypto by Blockgeeks
- Cryptocurrency Market Capitalizations by CoinMarketCap
Research / Interesting Reads
- The QE Party Is Over, Even For Japan by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street
- Fed Economist Demonstrates Ignorance by Aaron Layman via AaronLayman.com
- Bonds, Men Are Both In A Bear Market by Bill Gross via Janus Funds
- Everyone Is Suddenly Bearish On Bonds by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist
- Gross Exaggeration On Bond Doom by Buttonwood via The Economist
- Gundlach: 2018 Could Be The Magic Moment by Value Walk via Seeking Alpha
- Buffett: Full Interview On Market, Bitcoin & More by Market Folly
- Veritas: Twitter Shadow Banning Opposing Views by Tyler Durden via ZeroHedge
- Thaler: Investors Should Be Cautious by Christoph Gisiger via Finanz Und Wirtschaft
- 18-Predictions To Watch Over Next 5-Years by Vikram Mansharamani via Linked-In
- Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong by Rob Arnott via Research Affiliates
- Do Stocks Fast Start Bode Well For The Year? by Dana Lyons via The Lyons Share
- If Everyone Knows Pensions Are Screwed… by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report
“Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.” – Warren Buffett
Questions, comments, suggestions – please email me.
Lance Roberts