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CEOs, who are supposed to love Trump, are dumping stock during the postelection rally

| Trump Cabinet's are stocks beating the market

Trump Cabinet's stocks beating the market  

Chief executives and other corporate insiders, whose personal and corporate coffers are supposed to fatten under the policies of President-elect Donald Trump, are dumping stock during this postelection rally while other investors are falling over themselves to buy into the "Trump trade."


企業のCEOや幹部は個人的に持っている株式を次期トランプ大統領の政策を承知の上で売却している、彼らは売却する一方で、他の投資家は「トランプトレード」だと思い買いこんでいる。


So who's the sucker?


じゃ、誰が騙しているんだろう?


Insider sentiment collapsed soon after the postelection rally began and insiders have continued to cash out even as Trump put together one of the most business-friendly Cabinets of all time, according to two measures of buying and selling by company executives.


選挙後のラリー開始直後にインサイダーセンチメントは崩壊している、そしてトランプがかつて無いほどビジネス嗜好組閣をするなかでインサイダーは現金化を続けている、企業役員の売買を見ればよく分かる。


Look at what happens on the chart below from InsiderScore.com after November. The black line is the research shop's proprietary insider sentiment score, roughly a measure of the net buying volume versus the net selling. The lower it goes, the more selling there is versus buying. The blue line is the stock market, represented by the Value Line Geometric Index.


下のチャートはInsiderScore.comの11月以降のものだ。黒線はインサイダーセンチメントを表す、大まかには売却量に対する買い入れ量となる。これが低くなるということは、買いよりも売りが多いということだ。青線は株式市場を表し、Value Line Geometric Indexだ。


Source: InsiderScore.com


The selling is even more intense in the banking, industrial and energy sectors, according to Ben Silverman, director of research at InsiderScore.


この売りの強さは特に銀行、工業、エネルギーセクターに顕著だ、とBen Silvermanは言う、彼はInsiderScoreの調査責任者だ。


Here's Silverman's explanation to CNBC.com:


SilvermanはCNBC.comにこう解説する:

"It's certainly interesting that insiders in three sectors — financials, industrial goods and energy — that seem poised to benefit from the incoming administration's policies are leading the selling charge. Likewise, the type of tax code changes being talked about seem likely to benefit high-income individuals. I think this speaks to the fact that there is always uncertainty when there are administration changes and that insiders are their own breed of market participant. No one else gets 'free' stock annually so when stocks rally like this an insider's holdings in their company can become very imbalanced relative to their wealth, which is going to lead to some selling."


「この三セクターのインサイダー動向は面白いーー金融、工業製品、そしてエネルギーーこれらのセクターは次期政権で恩恵を受けると思われているが、インサイダーは売りに突き進んでいる。同様に、減税政策で高額所得者は恩恵を受けると思われている。私自身はこう理解している、政権交代はいつもながら不確定要素が高く、インサイダーは彼らの考え方で市場を盛り上げている。毎年「ただで」株式を受け取れる人は他にいないわけで、今回のようなラリーが続くと彼らの個人的資産からすると株式評価額が不均衡になっている、これが売却を引き起こす。」

But the sheer volume of the insider selling would argue against Silverman's point that this is mostly financial housekeeping.


しかし、インサイダー売却の量を見るとこれは金融界の掃除屋/維持管理要員といえるとSilvermanは指摘する。


There were nearly 5 insider sale transactions for every 1 purchase on the U.S. stock market last week, according to Vickers Weekly Insider. That's nearly double the 2.5-to-1 ratio it takes for that firm to get bearish.


先週で見ると、米国株の買い1に対してインサイダー売りは5になる、とVickers Weekly Insiderは述べる。これは通常の2.5対1の倍であり、とてもベアなものだ。


"Insider sentiment continues to reflect apparent caution on the part of corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners, this as major equity indices hang near all-time highs but seem unable to muster the needed strength to push still higher," the Vickers report said.


「インサイダーセンチメントは企業役員、オーナーの警告であり、これは株式指数が過去最高にはあるがこれから更に買い上げる可能性は難しそうに見える、」とVickers は報告する。


So which CEOs and executives are dumping?


では、どのCEOや役員が売却しているのだろう?


In the last week, insider selling at United Rentals, a construction equipment provider which has made many Trump trade lists because of a potential big infrastructure build-out, is at the highest levels in nearly five years, according to InsiderScore.


先週で見ると、United Rentalsのインサイダーセル、建設機器供給会社でトランプトレードリストに挙げられる、インフラ整備関連銘柄だ、この銘柄のインサイダーセルはこの五年で最高レベルだ、とInsiderScoreは言う。


"The most recent selling included CEO Michael Kneeland's first-ever sale outside of a 10b5-1 plan in an opportunistic-looking disposal," said the latest InsiderScore report.


「CEOのMichaer Kneelandは10b5−1プラン外で初めて売却を行った、これが大きい」とInsiderScoreは報告する。


Other stocks cited by the firm for their recent insider selling activity include Automatic Data Processing, Athenahealth, ON Semiconductor and Targa Resources.


これ以外に顕著な売却は、Automatic Data Processing,Athenahealth, ON Semiconducotor そしてTarga Resourcesだ。


A representative for United Rentals said in an email the "primary driver" for the CEO's stock sales was "tax driven, at [the] direction of his financial advisors" and noted that the majority of his wealth is "still tied to our company and stock."


United Rentalsの代理人はemailでこう回答した、CEOの株式売却の「主要因」は「納税のためで、彼のファイナンシャル・アドバイザーの指示によるものだ」そして彼の資産の多くはまだ「弊社とその株式にある。」と


So this is either some typical year-end insider activity accelerated a bit by the removal of a big uncertainty in the election or a subtle vote of no confidence in the president-elect to achieve his stated economic goals by the very group of people who are supposed to benefit the most from those plans.


というわけで、典型的な年末のインサイダー行動を拡大している、選挙結果による不確定回避と投票結果があまりに微妙で、彼らの政策の恩恵を受ける人たちの信任を本当に受けているかどうか不明だからだ。



"It's worth pointing out the irony of Trump's populist victory," said Silverman. "Most insiders fall into the top 2 percent of income category, be they a CEO or a vice president at a manufacturing company. Stock-based compensation has helped create the wealth gap and the rally has, at least temporarily, likely widened that gap as a group of very wealthy individuals has been able to generate substantial liquidity."


「トランプの大衆迎合勝利は皮肉なものだと考えざるを得ない」とSilvermanは言う。「多くのインサイダーは収入が上位2%に属する、製造業のCEOやvice presidentだ。株式による給与支払がさらに格差と株式ラリーを引き起こしている、すくなくとも一時的には、超富裕層は株式売却でさらに格差を大きくしている。」


John Melloy
John MelloyInvesting Editor of CNBC.com