SeekingAlpha記事の紹介です。

Summary

  • Significant market fluctuations have occurred following Donald J. Trump’s election as U.S. President. Those moves which are counter to their prevailing 2016 trends are beginning to dramatically reverse.
  • Assets in the strongest bull markets from their January 20, 2016 nadirs which have suffered notable intermediate-term corrections will enjoy substantial gains in the upcoming year.
  • Silver mining and gold mining shares, along with emerging-market bonds, are among the best bargains today.


  • 米国大統領選後に市場の大きな変動が起きた。2016年の支配的な動きに逆行するこれらの動向は劇的な反転をし始めた。
  • 2016年1月20日に底を迎えその後強いブル相場の資産は中期的な調整を受けたが、これから数年大きな上昇を享受するだろう。
  • 金鉱株や新興国債券はなかでも今絶好のバーゲンセールだ。

The Post-Trump Response Has Been Almost Entirely Emotional


トランプ後の反応はまったくもって感情によるものだ


Since the morning of November 9, 2016, as it became clear that Donald J. Trump would become the next U.S. President and that Republicans would retain control of both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives, the financial markets have experienced highly emotional behavior. Many investors did nothing at first and simply watched to see what went up or down in response to this widely-broadcast event. As soon as they saw something moving sharply in one direction or another, they chased these trends by purchasing whatever had surged the most rapidly and selling whichever assets had retreated by the largest percentages. This has resulted in some incredibly absurd price distortions, including unusual ratios between assets which have been closely correlated for decades or longer.


2016年11月9日朝になり、トランプが次期大統領となることと共和党が両院を支配するkとが判明して以来、金融市場はとても感情的動きを示した。多くの投資家は当初見守るだけで変動に対して行動を起こさなかった。彼らは資産が急激に動くのを見てすぐに、トレンドを追いかけ急上昇するものを買い、急落するものを売却した。この結果極端な価格の歪が生じた、もう何十年も強い相関があったアセットクラスにも異常が生まれた。


The Longer-Term Trends Remain Your Friends--Cherish Them


長期トレンドはあなたの友だーーこの信念を大切に


It is almost always the case that trends which have been in place prior to any news event will remain in place afterward. This is the opposite of what the media will usually tell you, since they want to exaggerate their importance by pretending that any dramatic event can impact the financial markets. However, even major surprises like the attack on Pearl Harbor, 9/11, and other geopolitical events merely delayed or slightly interrupted trends which had already been in place and which resumed afterward. Perhaps the most useful parallel would be the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan which temporarily led to a short-term rebound for some U.S. stocks but was soon followed by a resumption of the bear market for all U.S. equity indices which had begun in January 1980 and didn't end until August 1982.


これはいつものことだが、何かのニュースが現れてもそれまでのトレンドが変わることはない。これは主要メディアがが言うこととは反対だ、というのも彼らは大きな出来事があるとこれが如何に金融市場に影響があるかを強調しようとする。しかしながら、たとえ真珠湾攻撃や9.11のような出来事でも単にトレンドを中断したり遅延させるだけで、結局それまでの傾向に変わりはない。今回とよく似ているのは1980年の大統領選のRonald Reagan勝利だろう、このときは株式市場を一時的に短期反騰させたが、直ぐに米国株式市場はベア相場となり、1980年11月に始まったベア相場は1982年8月まで終わることはなかった。


When brief trends of a few weeks contrast sharply with trends which have been intact for several months or longer, it is almost always the case that the longer-term trends will reassert themselves while the short-term behavior proves to be temporary.


何ヶ月かそれ異常続くトレンドのなかでの数週の短いトレンドは目立つものだが、長いトレンドが有利となり、短期的な動きは一時的なことがわかる。


Investors Are Foolishly Projecting the Very Recent Past Several Years Ahead


投資家は愚かにも最近の出来事が今後数年継続すると誤解する


This is what many investors are saying to themselves: "I didn't see any reason to purchase many of these shares before Trump was elected. They looked clearly overpriced. However, now that he has become the President of the United States, they have climbed sharply. My original conclusion must therefore have been wrong. Look at how this one has soared for two weeks; since Trump will be President for four or eight more years, just imagine how much more it could rally. Therefore, even though I think it's overpriced, I'm going to buy some so I don't miss out." Multiply this sentiment by millions of traders, and you can see how an irrational bounce can become transformed into a far more illogical dramatic gain which is inherently unsustainable.


これは多くの投資家が自分自身に問いかけていることだ:「トランプ勝利前には言われてなかったのに多くの銘柄が買い込まれる理由がわからない。どれも明らかに買われすぎている。しかしながら、いまや彼が大統領になるのだから、そのために急上昇するのだろう。私自身の見立てが間違っていたに違いない。この2週でこの銘柄がこれだけ上昇したのを見ると良い;トランプがこれから4年もしくは8年大統領になるのだから、これからどれだけ上昇するか想像すると良い。というわけで、自分は買われ過ぎだと思うが、チャンスを逃さないために私も買おう。」この心理が何百万人もの投資家で増幅される、そしてあなたはこの馬鹿げた反転が非合理だが劇的な上昇につながるのではないかと思う、そんなもの持続可能な訳がない。



Investors are easily fooled, but top corporate insiders are not. Whenever there are all-time record inflows into any given sector, or huge multi-year outflows, it is almost always the case that those investors are doing the opposite of what will be a winning trade. During the first half of 2016, we had all-time record inflows into high-dividend and low-volatility funds which surpassed nearly all records of all funds throughout history. During this period, 1) utilities including Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLU), 2) REITs such as iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA:IYR), 3) consumer staples including Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLP), and related assets experienced some of their strongest-ever selling by top corporate insiders. Since then, these sectors have been among the most consistent losing trades, and even Trump's election wasn't able to interrupt their bear markets. Let's look at which sectors have been experiencing the biggest inflows and outflows and how insiders have responded in each case.


投資家はたやすく騙されてしまう、しかし企業の経営者は違う。有るセクターに過去最高の資金流入があるとき、もしくは何年ぶりかの資金流出があるとき、大抵の場合これとは逆の投資行動をすると成功する。2016年前半には、高配当、低変動ファンドに過去最高の資金流入があった、歴史始まって以来と言っておい。この期間、1)公益セクタXLU、2)REIT IYR、3)生活必需品 XLP、そして関連アセットクラスは経営者のかつて無いほどのインサイダーセルを受けた。それ以来、このセクターは下落を続けている、そしてトランプ勝利でもこのセクタのベア相場に変わりはない。どのセクターに大きな資金流入、流出があるか、そしてインサイダーはどう対応しているか確認してみよう。



When Investors Are Rushing In While Insiders Are Cashing Out, or Vice Versa, We Know Who Is Right


インサイダーが現金化しているときに投資家が殺到している時、もしくはその逆の時、どちらが正しいかは明白だ


When is the best time to sell or to sell short any sector? It is when there have been all-time record inflows combined with a sharp increase in insider selling. This signals that the least-knowledgeable traders are piling in while those who know the most about these companies are simultaneously getting out. The best time to buy is when there have been all-time record outflows combined with a significant increase in buying by top corporate executives.


有るセクターを売ったり空売りする最良タイミングは?それは過去最高の資金流入とインサイダーセルがかさなったときだ。知識の欠けるトレーダーが群がり、同時にこの企業を一番良く知る人が売るというシグナルだ。買いの最良タイミングは資金流出が過去最高で同時に経営者が大きく買い進むときだ。


Among the most irrationally popular funds in recent weeks have been those including the iShares U.S. Industrials ETF (NYSEARCA:IYJ) and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLI).

Whatever the merits of the individual components, it is doubtful that their profit growth will be altered significantly during the Trump administration or as a result of any other combination of events. Usually, corporate profit growth is barely affected even by dramatic geopolitical changes. A useful example would be the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSEARCA:EWZ), which plummeted when President Dilma Rousseff faced impeachment proceedings a year ago. Since then, the slump in the Brazilian real led to massively increased exports and much lower wages in U.S. dollar terms, thereby creating huge increases in profit margins. EWZ has been the 11th-biggest percentage winner of all nonleveraged exchange-traded funds in any category from its 52-week bottom of January 20, 2016, gaining 91.10% as of its close on November 25, 2016. More recently, negative hype about how Mexico will be "hurt" by Donald J. Trump has led to a slump for the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (NYSEARCA:EWW) which is finally rebounding from an absurdly oversold condition earlier this month. As with Brazil a year ago, the recent plunge in the Mexican peso implies lower wages along with increased exports worldwide which will lead to dramatic gains for Mexican equities.


最近ここ何週かで最も非合理なファンドは、IYJとXLIだ。ここの銘柄を見ると、トランプ政権での利益成長が疑わしい。通常、企業利益成長はほとんど地政学的な変化にはよらない。良い例は、ブラジル株式EWZだ、Dilma Rousseffが昨年弾劾に問われ急落した。それ以来、ブラジルレアルは低迷し、輸出が急増し、またドルベースでの労賃は急落した、結果として企業利益は大きく伸びた。EWZはレバレッジなしのETFでは11番目に大きな伸びを示した、2016年1月20日の安値からだ、2016年11月25日で91.10%の成長となる。もっと最近では、トランプのためにメキシコは「傷つく」だろうという悪印象があるため、メキシコ株式EWWが下落している。一年前のブラジルと同様に、最近のメキシコペソの下落は労賃を下げ輸出競争力が増し、メキシコ株は急騰するだろう。


For different geopolitical reasons, shares in the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NYSEARCA:TUR) and the iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF (NYSEARCA:EWI) have moved far out of line with their historic norms. In Italy, there will be an important vote on December 4, 2016 which has received almost entirely negative media coverage. In anticipation of any feared event or uncertainty, investors will almost always sell first and ask questions later, thereby creating compelling buying opportunities. We also had important higher lows in recent weeks for numerous funds which remain worthwhile for purchase, including the Global X MSCI Colombia ETF (NYSEARCA:GXG), the Global X Uranium ETF (NYSEARCA:URA), and the less reliable Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) which probably suffered out of fear that Donald J. Trump will be less favorable than Hillary Clinton would have been toward alternative energy producers.


種々の地政学的な理由から、トルコ株式TURとイタリア株式EWIは歴史的な水準から大きく下落している。イタリアでは2016年12月4日に重要な選挙がある、メディアはこれに関してネガティブな情報を発している。恐怖や不透明感への不安から、投資家はいつものことだが、まず売却しそれから自問する、こういうときが買いの良い機会だ。この何週かとても良い押し目がある、買チャンスだ、コロンビアGXG、ウラニウムURA、そして多少劣るが太陽電池TANだ、トランプはヒラリーほどに代替エネルギーに熱心ではないという恐れからだ。


Remember Modi in 2014--Indian Stocks Peaked 24 Days Later


2014年のModiを思い起こすと良いーーインド株がピークを迎えたのは24日後のことだ


Narendra Modi was elected in a surprise victory as the Prime Minister of India on May 16, 2014. Many financial commentators who had been bearish or neutral toward Indian equities suddenly turned bullish, with numerous analysts predicting bull markets which would last for ten years or longer including this upbeat forecast on Seeking Alpha and this outlook in India's best-known publication declaring that a bull market for Indian shares would persist for a decade. Excitement led to massive inflows and a notable increase in insider selling. As it turned out, as you can see from a chart of VanEck Vectors India Small-Cap Index ETF (NYSEARCA:SCIF), the majority of Indian stocks and especially those touted most by analysts ended up peaking on or around June 9, 2014--less than a month after the election. SCIF hasn't regained those highs since then, even after several rebound attempts and plenty of improvement for corporate earnings and other positive developments (at least until recently). Almost no one has mentioned this parallel, even though investor and insider behavior are quite similar to what has occurred recently in the United States.


Narendra Modiが驚きの勝利でインド首相になったのは2014年5月16日のことだ。多くのファイナンシャルコメンテーターはインド株に対して弱気またはニュートラルだったが途端に強気になった、多くのアナリストがブル相場が10年続くと予測した、たとえばSeeking Alphaの記事やインドの著名な雑誌でだ、インド株のブル相場は10年続くと予想した。これに興奮して多額の資金が流入し、インサイダーは売却した。インド株SCIFのチャートを見ればすぐに解るが、多くのインド株やアナリストの推奨銘柄は2014年6月9日にピークを迎えたーー投票からまだ一月経っていなかった。SCIFそれ以来その高値を越えていない、何度かの反転と企業収益の改善が会ったにも関わらず。ほとんどだれもこの類似に言及しない、たとえ最近米国で起きている投資家とインサイダーの行動がとても似ているにも関わらず。


The more intense is the level of investors' and insiders' response to any news event, the less likely it is that it will be sustainable, especially when it goes against an already-established trend.

どんなニュースに対しても、投資家とインサイダーの反応が大きいほど、持続性は低い、特にすでに出来上がったトレンドに逆らうときには。


Mining Shares Remain the Biggest Winners of 2016


鉱山株はまだ2016年の大きな勝ち組だ


Even with multiple sharp corrections in 2016, the best-performing funds of the year and the biggest percentage gainers from their respective 52-week lows have been funds of mining companies. According to xtf.com the top ten biggest percentage winners of all unleveraged exchange-traded funds from their 52-week lows as of their closing prices on Friday, November 25, 2016 are 1) PureFunds ISE Junior Silver ETF (NYSEARCA:SILJ), up 210.64%; 2) SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (NYSEARCA:XME) which includes precious and base metals producers, up 180.67%; 3) VanEck Vectors Coal ETF (NYSEARCA:KOL) which are coal mining companies, up 165.48%; 4) VanEck Vectors Steel ETF (NYSEARCA:SLX), up 164.97%; 5) Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:COPX), up 152.31%; 6) iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:SLVP), up 134.42%; 7) Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:SIL), up 128.63%; 8) VanEck Vectors Russia Small-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:RSXJ), up 122.60%; 9) iShares MSCI Global Select Metals & Mining Producers ETF (NYSEARCA:PICK), up 109.44%; and 10) VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDXJ), up 100.36%.


2016年に何度も調整を受けたが、今年の最大パフォーマンスファンドは鉱山会社だ。xtf.comによれば、52週安値からの上昇率トップ10は、2016、11月25日時点で 1)小型銀鉱株SILJ、210.64%;2)金属鉱山XME、貴金属、卑金属を含む180.67%;3)石炭鉱山KOL 165.48%;4)鉄鋼SLX、164.97%;5)銅鉱山COPX、152.31%;6)銀鉱株SLVP、134.42%;7)銀鉱株SIL、128.63%;8)ロシア小型RSXJ、122.60%;9)金属鉱山PICK、109.44%、10)小型金鉱株GDXJ、100.36% 。


Silver Mining and Gold Mining Shares Have Suffered Significant Corrections and Are Resuming Their Powerful Bull Markets


銀鉱株と金鉱株は深刻な調整を受けたがまだ力強いブル相場にある


Out of the ten top-performing unleveraged exchange-traded funds listed above, those involving silver mining and gold mining have experienced some of the sharpest corrections in recent weeks. For example, GDXJ, a fund of junior gold and silver producers, had reached 52.50 on August 11, 2016 and likely completed an intermediate-term bottom on November 14, 2016 when it touched 32.80 at 9:31:40 a.m. (less than two minutes after the opening bell) which was a substantial total drop of over 37.5% and put it twenty cents above its spring low of 32.60 on May 31, 2016 which had also followed a correction. Since then, even with gold bullion 3% lower than it had been on November 14 when the most active December 2016 gold contract traded at 1170.30 U.S. dollars per troy ounce at 8:04 p.m. on November 24, 2016, GDXJ has made higher lows and is currently more than twice its nadir of 16.87 from January 20, 2016.


トップ10パフォーマンスを示したETFのなかで、銀鉱株や金鉱株はここ数週大きな調整を受けた。たとえば、GDXJは小型金鉱、銀鉱株だが、2016年8月11日に52.50となったが、2016年11月14日に中期的な底値32.80となった(開場2分後のことだ)高値から37.5%の下落で、2016年5月31日の調整時32.60からわずか2セント高にすぎない。それ以降、ゴールドはさらに3%下落し2014年11月24日に12月さきものが1170.30まで下落したが、GDXJは押し目となるだけで安値更新しなかった、2016年1月20日の底値16.87の二倍を越えている。


There is another powerful divergence which in the past has led to dramatic additional gains for this sector. From their respective 16.87 and 104.94 intraday lows of January 20, 2016, GDXJ as of the close on Friday, November 25, 2016 had gained 13.73 times as much as GLD. This is more than three times its average historic ratio. Whenever gold and silver mining shares are set for strong uptrends, this ratio tends to be significantly above average. It works the other way too: when gold mining and silver mining shares were topping out during 2008 and 2011, the shares of the mining companies gained only about 1.5% for every 1% rise in the price of gold bullion. For parts of 2011 this ratio even dropped below 1:1. Whenever the Fed is set to begin a new rate-cutting cycle, this ratio will once again contract to around 1.5 to 1 to serve as a confirming sell signal for this sector.


さらにもう一つ力強いダイバージェンスがある、過去の例を見るとこのセクターのこれからの劇的な上昇を予感させる。2016年1月20日の日中底値は、GDXJ16.87,GLD104.94だった、今週金曜2016年11月25日のGDXJ終値の上昇率はGLDの13.73倍ある。この値は歴史的平均の3倍もある。金鉱株や銀鉱株が強い上昇基調にあるとき、この比は平均を大きく超える。他の具体例も示そう:金鉱株が天井形成をしていた2008年から2011年の間で見ると、ゴールド価格の1%上昇に対して、金鉱株の上昇は1.5%程度でしかなかった。2011年になるとこの比は1:1まで下落した。FEDが金利引下げ期にはいると、この比は1.5から1まで下落しこのセクターの売りシグナルとなる。


Silver mining shares overall have gained even more than gold mining shares from their 52-week lows and have generally lost greater percentages from their August highs, with both of these likely being among the biggest percentage winners during the upcoming year. Here is a chart of SIL from its inception:


52週底値から見ると、銀鉱株は金鉱株よりも上昇が大きく、8月の高値からの下落幅も大きい、どちらもこれから先の大きな上昇を予感させる。これがSILの開始以来のチャートだ:

According to Daily Sentiment Index, on Friday, November 25, 2016 only 7% of futures traders were bullish toward gold. This is unusually low for any asset which has been in a bull market for nearly a year.


Daily Sintiment Indexによると、2016年11月25日(金)でゴールド先物トレーダーは強気がわずか7%だ。この値は一年続いたブル相場のなかでは例外的に低い。


The U.S. Dollar Remains Ridiculously High


米ドルはとんでもない高値にとどまっている


On March 13, 2015, the U.S. dollar index reached 100.39 for the first time since April 2003. Since then, it registered a slightly higher high of 100.51 on December 2, 2015, and then a modestly more elevated peak of 102.05 at 3:05 a.m. on November 24, 2016. The media have been trumpeting these incremental increases as though the greenback had surged by 30% or 40%, with bullish sentiment toward the U.S. dollar index reaching 93% on November 18, 2016 according to Daily Sentiment Index. The U.S. Federal Reserve will meet on December 14, 2016, at which time it will almost certainly increase the overnight lending rate by a quarter percent. This development has already been far more than anticipated by the global financial markets, with most U.S. bonds accelerating their downtrends which had begun from all-time zeniths in July 2016. The Fed meeting is the only psychological event holding up the U.S. dollar; it would have been slumping already but people hate to trade in advance of any major news announcement. Once the Fed makes the hike official, the greenback will soon accelerate its downtrend which will likely appear as a serious of modestly lower highs prior to that date. How low it will eventually go is anyone's guess; since the U.S. dollar index was below 80 for part of each year from 2007 through 2014, I expect it to slide below 80 again at some point in 2017 and perhaps also in the early months of 2018.


2015年3月13日に米ドル指数は100.39となり、2003年4月以来の高値になった。それ以降では、2015年12月2日に少し高い値100.51となった、その後はもう少し緩やかなピーク102.05を2016年11月24日に迎えた。メディアはこの上昇をまるでドルが30とか40%も上昇したかのように騒ぎ立ててきた、米ドルに対する強気センチメントは2016年11月8日にはDaily Sentiment Indexで93%にまでなった。米国FEDは2016年12月14日に会合を持つ、この時フェデラルファンドレートを0.25%引き上げることが確実視されている。この動向はすでに世界の金融市場を不安にさせている、多くの米国債は2016年7月の最高値から下落傾向を強めている。FOMCが米ドルの動きを心理的に停滞させる;すでに停滞させてもよいのだが多くの人は大きなニュースの場合事前にそれを取り込んだ取引を避ける傾向がある。一旦FEDが公式に金利を引き上げると、米ドルはすぐに下落を加速する、その日までに少高値 lower high を迎えるだろう。どこまで下落するかは誰もが注目している;2007年から2014年までで米ドル指数は80以下になったことが何度か有る、私は2017年の何処かの時点で80を切ることが有るのではないかと見ている、また2018年の最初の数ヶ月もそうだろう。


Emerging-Market Bonds Have Slumped Irrationally


発展途上国の国政は非合理に下落している


As a result of the extreme popularity of the U.S. dollar, combined with a massive worldwide sell-off of bonds of all kinds, emerging-market bonds have become among the world's best bargains. This includes both government and corporate bonds which each have their merits and drawbacks, thereby making diversified funds of these bonds highly attractive. These funds include PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Portfolio (NYSEARCA:PCY), WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt Fund (NYSEARCA:ELD), iShares Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:LEMB), and VanEck Vectors J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:EMLC). All of the above funds are commission-free with one or more major U.S. brokers. These funds aren't as cheap as they had been when they had bottomed along with most commodity producers and other emerging-market assets on January 20, 2016, but like silver mining and gold mining shares represent compelling bargains at higher lows in bull markets which will likely accelerate during the upcoming year.


米ドルがあまりに好まれ、加えて世界中で債券が売られており、新興国債券はまさにバーゲンセールとなっている。これは国債も企業債も同様で、それぞれに欠点、利点がある、これらの債券ファンドを分散させるのが良い。たとえば、新興国国債PCY、新興国債券ELD、新興国現地通貨債券LEMB、そして新興国現地通貨債券EMLCだ。これらのファンドは米国ブローカーでは手数料無料だ。これらのファンドは以前ほど割安ではない、多くのコモディティプロデューサーや新興国市場が底値を付けた2016年1月20日のことだ、しかし金鉱株と同様にブル相場のなかのバーゲンセール押し目となっており、今後数年で大きく上昇するだろう。


Sector Interrelationships Have Become Grotesquely Distorted


セクター間の相互関係は醜く歪んでいる



Some assets have correlated closely with each other for decades or centuries--or even for millennia. Copper mining and base metal mining shares have closely tracked silver mining and gold mining shares, sometimes with a delay in either direction. Commodity-country currencies including the CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (NYSEARCA:FXC) and CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSEARCA:FXA) have also had a long-term powerful positive correlation with the above assets. Since Trump's election, however, investors have poured into base metals mining shares while shunning the shares of precious metals producers. Eventually these have to realign themselves with each other, which could partly happen with moderate corrections for copper mining and base metals producers but will likely see most of these disparities resolved via strong rebounds for silver mining and gold mining shares.

幾つかのアセットクラスは何十年、何百年ーー場合によっては千年も相関関係がある。銅鉱山と卑金属鉱山株は金鉱株や銀鉱株と強い相関がある、時には時間遅れのあることもあるが。新興国通貨FXCとオーストラリアドルFXAも上記アセットと長期に渡り強い相関がある。トランプ勝利後、しかしながら、投資家は卑金属鉱山株に資金を注ぎ込みながら貴金属鉱山株から資金を引き上げている。やがてこれらは同じように扱われるに違いない、どちらもが修正することで乖離が解消されるだろうが、金鉱株のリバウンド寄与が大きいだろう。


As Always, Never Buy 2:1 or 3:1 Leveraged Funds


いつものことだが、決して2:1とか3:1のレバレッジファンドを買ってはいけない


Do not purchase leveraged funds in these or in any other securities. Leveraged funds, especially 3:1 funds, suffer from inherently severe erosion due to beta slippage. For example, suppose an unleveraged fund is trading at 100 and a 3:1 leveraged fund based upon the same basket is also trading at 100. The unleveraged fund drops 10% to 90, so the 3:1 fund drops 3 times 10% or 30% to 70. Now the unleveraged fund recovers from 90 to 100, thereby gaining 11.1111%. The leveraged fund will therefore climb by 3 times 11.1111% or 33.3333% and will be at 93.33. Thus, you have lost nearly 7% from being in the leveraged fund. The same would be true if the nonleveraged fund originally climbs 10% and then falls back to its original price. Thus, leveraged funds will approach zero in the long run and are appropriate only for selling short.


レバレッジファンドは買ってはいけない。レバレッジファンドは、たとえば3:1の場合、特有の深刻な腐食を起こす。例えば、原資産が100でx3ファンドも同じく100だったとしよう。原資産が10%下落して90になるとすると、x3ファンドは30%下落して70となる。そこで原資産が100に回復するには11.1111%の上昇必要だ。対応するx3ファンドは33.3333%上昇して93.33となる。これで解るだろうが、レバレッジファンドでは7%の損失となる。原資産が最初に10%上昇してその後下落しても同様だ。というわけで、レバレッジファンドは長期間を減ると限りなくゼロに近づく、こういうファンドが適しているのは短期の売却のときだけだ。


The Prevailing Trends of 2016 Are Reasserting Themselves and Will Mostly Intensify in 2017


2016年のトレンドは再開し、その傾向は2017年にさらに強まる


Remember the concern on January 20, 2016 that commodity-related and emerging-market assets would "lead the world into a global economic contraction." Remember the fear after Brexit that the U.K. market and especially its banks would slump badly due to the anticipation of a severed connection with the European Union. In both cases, the correct action was the exact opposite of the nearly unanimous consensus. Now that most analysts are convinced that market fluctuations which followed Donald J. Trump's election as U.S. President will continue for four or eight more years, it is timely to bet that all recent moves which have been counter to their previous 2016 trends will significantly reverse; most of them have already reached their extremes for the cycle while many others will soon do likewise. Whenever amateur investors pile into anything, whether it is internet shares in 1999-2000, high-dividend shares in 2015-2016, or industrial shares in November 2016, each time with all-time record inflows, it is signaling that these rallies are unsustainable. Internet shares were huge percentage losers from March 10, 2000 through October 10, 2002 while high-dividend shares will likely suffer their worst total losses since the Great Depression. It's not different this time: the same will be true with currently overhyped investment themes. Trends which recent buyers expect will last for four or eight years might not even persist for four or eight days.


2016年1月20日のことを覚えているだろうか、コモディティ関連や新興国市場が「世界経済縮小へと世界を導く」と。Brexitのことを覚えているだろうか、英国市場や英国銀行はEU離脱で急落悪化すると。どちらの場合も、正しい投資行動は満場一致コンセンサスとは逆だった。今ではほとんどのアナリストはトランプ勝利後の変化が今後4年または8年続くと確信している、2016年のトレンドは大きく反転し今がそれに乗るときだと;それらの変化の多くはもう最高潮に達しており、他もすぐに同様になるだろう。いつものことだが素人投資家が飛びついたときには、例えば1999−2000のインターネット関連株や、2015−2016年の高配当株、2016年11月の産業株、いつも過去最高の資金流入となる、これらのラリーは持続可能でない証左だ。インターネット関連株は2000年3月10日から2002年10月10日までに巨額の損失を出した、高配当株はこれから大恐慌以来の最悪の下落となるだろう。It's not different this time(あえて訳しません):今の誇大評価されている投資テーマも同じ道をたどるだろう。今の買い手はこのトレンドが4年か8年続くと思っているが、4日とか8日でさえ継続することはないだろう。


Similarly, those assets which have slumped the most since Trump's election after having been strong performers in powerful uptrends during 2016, especially precious metals mining shares and emerging-market bonds, will prove to be among the biggest winners during the upcoming year and will likely outperform until the Fed is ready for its next rate-cutting cycle perhaps in 2018.


同様に、2016年を通じて力強い上昇したが、トランプ勝利後に大きく下落したアセット、特に貴金属鉱山株や新興国債券、は今後数年は最大の勝ち馬になることが証明されるだろう、そしてFEDの次の金利引下げ期まではアウトパフォームするだろう、たぶん2018だろうが。


Disclosure: I am/we are long LARGEST TO SMALLEST LONGS: GDXJ (SOME NEW), SIL (SOME NEW), KOL, GDX (SOME NEW), XME, COPX, EWZ, RSX, GOEX, URA, REMX, VGPMX, HDGE (SOME NEW), ELD (SOME NEW), GXG (SOME NEW), IDX, NGE, BGEIX, ECH, FCG, SEA (SOME NEW), VNM (SOME NEW), NORW, BCS, EWW (SOME NEW), PGAL, GREK, EPOL, RBS, TUR (SOME NEW), RSXJ, RGLD, SLW, SAND, SILJ, EPU, FTAG, SOIL, EPHE, AND THD. LARGEST TO SMALLEST SHORTS: IYR, XLU, FXG, AND SPHD.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.



Additional disclosure: I recently sold DXJ which I had bought shortly after Brexit with a total average gain including reinvested dividends of 26.5%. With only 4% bulls on the yen and 86% bulls on the Nikkei, the risk-reward is no longer compelling.


追加開示:私は最近DXJを売却した、これはBrexit後に買ったもので利益は26.5%になる。センチメントしてYenに4%ブル、Nikkeiに86%ブルであり、risk-rewardを考えるとこうせざるを得なかった。