また、virtuall があります。
銀行などはこのQ1の決算で売上も収益も多く減少しているのに予想EPSを上回ったとはやし立てて買われています。でもそのEPSは自社株買いで生み出されたものですからねえ。ではその自社株買いはどこから生まれたか、ゼロ金利政策による借金です。
11 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is Rapidly Deteriorating Even As The Stock Market Soars
Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
We have seen this story before, and it never ends well. From mid-March until early May 2008, a vigorous stock market rally convinced many investors that the market turmoil of late 2007 and early 2008 was over and that happy days were ahead for the U.S. economy. But of course we all know what happened. It turned out that the market downturns of late 2007 and early 2008 were just “foreshocks” of a much greater crash in late 2008. The market surge in the spring of 2008 was just a mirage, and it masked rapidly declining economic fundamentals. Well, the exact same thing is happening right now. The Dow rose another 222 points on Tuesday, but meanwhile virtually every number that we are getting is just screaming that the overall U.S. economy is steadily falling apart. So don’t be fooled by a rising stock market. Just like in the spring of 2008, all of the signs are pointing to an avalanche of bad economic news in the months ahead. The following are 11 signs that the U.S. economy is rapidly deteriorating…
今とよく似た状況を過去にも経験した、そのときはまずい結果だった。２００８年の３月なかばから５月始めにかけてのことだ、株式市場のラリーが続き、多くの投資家は２００７年遅くから２００８年始めの停滞が終わりまた米国経済が上向くと信じた。でもその後のことは皆よくご存知だ。後になってわかるが２００７年遅くや２００８年始めの市場下落は２００８年後半のさらなる下落の「予告」にすぎなかった。２００８年４月の株価急騰は幻影にすぎなかった、これを見たために急速に劣化するファンダメンタルズを覆い隠してしまった。そう、いままさにこれと同じことが起きている。DJIは火曜に２２２ポイント上昇した、しかし同時に発表される指標のほとんどは米国経済の下落を示している。株式上昇に騙されてはいけない。２００８年春と同様に、すべての兆候はこれから訪れる雪崩のような悪いニュースを指し示している。以下に示す１１の兆候は米国経済の急速劣化を示している・・・・
#1 Total business sales have been declining for nearly two years, and they are now about 15 percent lower than they were in late 2014.
＃１ もう二年も売上は下落している、すでに２０１４年遅くよりも１５％も下回っている。
#2 The inventory to sales ratio is now back to near where it was during the depths of the last recession. This means that there is lots and lots of unsold stuff just sitting around out there, and that is a sign of a very unhealthy economy.
＃２ 売上に対する在庫比率を見るとこの前のリセッション期と同じだ。倉庫に売れ残り品が山積みされているということで、不健全経済の兆候だ。
#3 Corporate earnings have declined for four consecutive quarters. This never happens outside of a recession.
＃３ 企業収益は４四半期連続で悪化している。リレッション以外でこういうことが起こったことがない。
#4 Profits for companies listed on the S&P 500 were down 7.1 percent during the first quarter of 2016 when compared to the same time period a year ago.
＃４ S&P500を構成する企業の２０１６Q1利益は前年比で７．１％下落している。
#5 In April, commercial bankruptcies were up 32 percent on a year over year basis, and Chapter 11 filings were up 67 percent on a year over year basis. This is exactly the kind of spike that we witnessed during the initial stages of the last major financial crisis as well.
＃５ この４月に企業倒産は昨年比で３２％増加した、Chapter 11 倒産処理手続に入った来ぎょ言うは年率６７％増加している。まさに急騰だが、同様の現象が前回の金融危機の初期段階で見られた。
#6 U.S. rail traffic was 11 percent lower last month than it was during the same month in 2015. Right now there are 292 Union Pacific engines sitting idle in the middle of the Arizona desert because there is literally nothing for them to do.
＃６ 米国鉄道輸送は前年比で１１％下落している。今まさに２９２のUnion Pacific機関車がアリゾナの砂漠で待機している。
#7 The U.S. economy has lost an astounding 191,000 mining jobs since September 2014. For areas of the country that are heavily dependent on mining, this has been absolutely devastating.
＃７ 米国経済は２０１４年９月以来で、なんと１９１，０００の鉱山職を失っている。鉱山業に強く依存している地域では、経済はまさに壊滅的だ。
#8 According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, U.S. firms announced 35 percent more job cuts during April than they did in March. This indicates that our employment problems are accelerating.
＃８ 人材活用会社 Challenger, Gray & Christmasによるとこの４月に前月に比べて３５％増の解雇を行った。この状況は雇用状況をさらに悪化している。
#9 So far this year, job cut announcements are running 24 percent above the exact same period in 2015.
＃９ 今年に入り、解雇通告は２０１５年の同時期に比べ２４％増えている。
#10 U.S. GDP grew at just a 0.5 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2016. This was the third time in a row that the GDP number has declined compared to the previous quarter, and let us not forget that the formula for calculating GDP was changed last year specifically to make the first quarter of each year look better. Without that “adjustment”, it is quite possible that we would have had a negative number for the first quarter.
＃１０ 米国GDPの成長は２０１６Q1にわずか年率０．５％だった。GDPが前四半期よりも減少するのはもう３四半期連続だ、忘れてならないのはGDPの算出方法が昨年改訂され、年初四半期に良い数値がでるようになっている。この「調整」がなければ、今年Q1はマイナス成長になるところだった。
#11 Barack Obama is poised to become the first president in U.S. history to never have a single year during his time in office when the economy grew by more than 3 percent.
＃１１ オバマ大統領は歴代初の大統領となる、在任中一度も年率３％成長を経験しなかった大統領としてだ。
But you never hear Obama talk about that statistic, do you?
And the mainstream media loves to point the blame at just about anyone else. In fact, the Washington Post just came out with an article that is claiming that the big problem with the economy is the fact that U.S. consumers are saving too much money…
しかし皆さんはオバマ氏が統計について言及するのを聞いたことがあるだろうか？
そして主要メディアは責任転嫁するのが大好きだ。実際、Washington Postは経済停滞の理由を記事にした、なんと米国消費者が貯蓄し過ぎだと・・・・
The surge in saving is the real drag on the economy. It has many causes. “People got a cruel lesson about [the dangers] of debt,” says economist Matthew Shapiro of the University of Michigan. Households also save more to replace the losses suffered on homes and stocks. But much saving is precautionary: Having once assumed that a financial crisis of the 2008-2009 variety could never happen, people now save to protect themselves against the unknown. Research by economist Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics finds higher saving at all income levels.
過剰な貯蓄が経済に害毒となる。多くの理由がある。「国民は負債についてよく勉強した」、University of Michiganの経済学者 Matthew Shapiroは言う。家計は住宅や株式で生じた損失を補うためにさらに貯蓄をする。しかし多額の貯蓄は予防措置である：２００８−２００９のような金融危機が起きるとは思わないが、人々は将来に対する不安から身を守るために貯蓄をする。MoodysのエコノミストMark Zandiの調査によると、あらゆる所得階層で貯蓄率が高まっている。
So even though half the country is flat broke, I guess we are all supposed to do our patriotic duty by going out and running up huge balances on our credit cards.
What a joke.
もし緊急救命室に運ばれてもその費用＄４００を払えない人が国民の半分も居る、愛国心を振り払い自ら緊急救命室かれ出てゆかねばならない、そしてクレジットカードはもう目いっぱいの支払だ。
なんというジョークか。
Of course the U.S. economy is actually doing significantly better at the moment than almost everywhere else on the planet. Many areas of South America have already plunged into an economic depression, major banks all over Europe are in the process of completely melting down, Japanese GDP has gone negative again despite all of their emergency measures, and Chinese stocks are down more than 40 percent since the peak of the market.
当然だが米国経済は他国読みも格段に優れている。南米の多くの国は不況に落ち込み、欧州の主要銀行はメルトダウン状態だ、日本のGDPは緊急出動にも関わらず再びマイナス成長となった、中国の株式はピークから４０％も下落している。
This is a global economic slowdown, and just like in 2008 it is only a matter of time before the financial markets catch up with reality. I really like how Andrew Lapthorne put it recently…
これが世界的経済停滞というものだ、２００８年と同様に金融市場がこれに追いつくのは時間の問題だ。私は、Andrew Lapthorneの最近の記事に同意する・・・・
On the more bearish slant is Andrew Lapthorne, head of quantitative strategy at Societe Generale. To him this profit downturn is a sign that stocks are far too overvalued and the economy is weaker than you think.
Andrew Lapthorneはさらにベア派に傾いている、彼はSociete Generaleの分析主任だ。彼によると利益の下落は株価下落の前兆で皆が思っているよう見も経済は過剰評価されている。
“MSCI World EPS is now declining at the fastest pace since 2009, losing 4% in the last couple of months alone (this despite stronger oil prices),” wrote Lapthorne in a note. For the S&P 500 specifically, the year on year drop in profit drop was the most since third quarter of 2009.
“Global earnings are now 14% off the peak set in August 2014 and back to where they stood five years ago. Equity prices on the other hand are 25% higher. Gravity beckons!”
「世界的に見た利益は２０１４年８月のピークから１４％下落しており、５年前の状態だ。一方で株価は２５％も高くなっている。重力の法則が待ち構えている！」
I couldn’t have said it better myself.
私が書き加えることはもう無い。
Look, this is not a game.
現状をよく見ることだ、これはゲームではない、現実だ。
So far in 2016, three members of my own extended family have lost their jobs. Businesses are going under at a pace that we haven’t seen since 2008, and this means that more mass layoffs are on the way.
We can certainly be happy that U.S. stocks are doing okay for the moment. May it stay that way for as long as possible. But anyone that believes that this state of affairs can last indefinitely is just being delusional.
２０１６年になって、私自身の親戚がすでに３人も仕事を失った。ビジネスは２００８年以来の低調で、ということはこれからさらに解雇が増える。たしかに今は米国株は株高で幸せだ。これができるだけ続いて欲しいと思う。しかしこの状況がずっと続くと考えるのは幻想にすぎない。
Gravity beckons, and the crash that is to come is going to be a great sight to behold.
重力の法則が待ち構えている、暴落が来るのは明白だ。
