Kyle Bass On The Resurgence Of Gold And The Looming "Run On Cash"

Hayman Capital founder Kyle Bass sat down recently for a conversation with Maria Bartiromo and Gary Kaminsky on Wall Street Week. He covered a variety of topics such as NIRP, income inequality, and the U.S. presidential race. As our regular readers know, Kyle correctly predicted the housing crisis, and is now calling for the yuan to be dramatically devalued.

Hayman Capital創業者のKyle BassはWall Street Weekのインタビューを受けた。彼の話題は広範囲にわたり、マイナス金利、収入格差、そして米国大統領選挙。ZeroHedge読者ならよく知っているが、Kyleは住宅ローン危機を予見した人物のひとりだ、今は人民元の劇的減価を予言している。

On the growing use of negative interest rates as a central bank policy tool, he pointed out that while the central planners have their PhD's and elaborate excel models, the reality is that not all people behave rationally, and thus in the real world those types of policies won't necessarily work as intended. He also touched on the fact that a concern that should be on the front of everyone's mind is the fact that if NIRP goes full Shinzo Abe and banks start charging customers for keeping cash at their banks, that there will be a run on cash.

中央銀行の政策ツールとしてマイナス金利適用が増えていることに関してこう述べる、金融政策立案者は学究肌で複雑精緻なモデルを組み立てる、しかし現実には皆が理性的に行動するわけではない、そのため実際にそういう政策が意図したとおりには機能しないだろう。彼はまた一般市民の心理についても言及した、もし安倍晋三や日銀が個人口座の金利までマイナス金利にすると、みな現金に殺到するだろうと。

"I think this is where the academics are kind of clashing with the practitioners. I think on paper negative rates make a lot of sense if you're running academic models, but in reality they make no sense. Having seven or eight trillion dollars of debt trading at negative rates, having thirty year JGB's trading at fifty basis points is absolutely ludicrous. This experiment that's going on we all know will end poorly at some point in time, I just don't know when that time is."

「私はこう思う、実務家の前で学究肌政策立案者は玉砕状態だ。論文を書くならマイナス金利に意味があるだろう、しかし現実にはナンセンスだ。いまや７，８TUSDの負債がマイナス金利になっている、日本国債３０年物の金利がわずか５０BPSだなんて馬鹿げている。現在進行中の社会実験はいつか酷い結果を逢える、その時を正確に予言することはできないが。」

 

"I think that one of the fears that they have is a run on cash. If they told you and I that they're going to tax your deposits by a hundred basis points, well it's better to put it in a safe or under your mattress. And that's why you see a resurgence in gold. The more they move to negative rates, the more gold is gonna take off because there's no carrying cost."

「私が懸念するのはこのことだ、こういうことをしていると現金回帰が起こる。預金に１００BPの税金をかけると言われれば、預金を引き出して金庫にしまうか布団の下に隠すだろう。そしてゴールドの復活をみることになる。マイナス金利を推し進めれば、ゴールドが好まれる、保管コストがないのだから。」

Regarding what's going on in Asia, he reiterates his call that there's a giant credit bubble (as we discussed here, here, and here) that's reached its breaking point and it's going to burst over the next two or three years. He says that he believes the implosion of the china credit bubble will have a 40-50% chance of causing a recession in the U.S. within the next year.

アジアに目を向けると、彼は何度も繰り返すが、巨額の与信バブル（ZeroHedgeがなんども記事にしてきた）状態にあり、あと２，３年で臨界点に達し弾けるだろうと言う。彼はこう信じている、中国のよしんばブブル崩壊は４０−５０％の確率で来年米国の景気後退を引き金になる。

"From the perspective of what's going on in Asia, Asia has a giant credit bubble that they've been building for the last ten years or longer that has reached its atrophy level, and it's going to happen over the next two or three years. Whether that causes the U.S. to have a brief, minor recession, I think it's kind of forty, fifty percent chance in the next year personally."

「いまアジアで起きていることを見渡すと、アジアはこの１０年で巨額の与信バブルを作り上げいまや収斂状態に達した、これは今後２，３年つづく。これが米国に短期の小規模景気後退を引き起こす、この確率は４０，５０％あると見ている。」

He goes on to hammer the central banks' monetary policy decisions, saying that they can't generate true organic growth and that we've been doing the same thing for the past eight years and we're still in the situation we're in. Something Zero Hedge has been pointing out consistently over the past seven years.

彼は中央銀行の金融政策決定に警鐘を与える、金融政策で経済成長を実現できるわけがない、この８年同じことをやっているのに状況は変わらない。これはZeroHedgeがこの７年継続して指摘してきたことと同じだ。

"I don't buy this idea that monetary policy can generate true organic growth. It can help us out of a crisis, and it's proven to do so, but listen we've had eight years of full out excessive monetary and fiscal policies and here we are today. So when Lagarde goes to the G-20 and says we all need to work together, we've been working together. Everybody has been on easy monetary policy, we've pulled all the demand forward that we can, and now we're stuck with kind of stagnation and excess capacity and a lot of debt."

「金融政策が経済成長を促すという考えには同意できない。金融危機時の助けにはなる、実際そうだった、しかしこの８年全力で過剰緩和を実行し財政出動をして現在に至る。LegardeがG20でこれから協調が必要だと言った、しかしこれまでもずっと協調してきたではないか。どの国も緩和策を取ってきた、もう可能なかぎりの需要を先取りし、経済停滞に陥り、過剰供給と過剰負債に苦しんでいる。」

 

"Economics assumes that everyone is a rational actor, and we all know in this world there aren't many rational actors. That's where there's a divergence between academia and practitioners."

「経済学では参加者がみな合理的行動をするとされる、でも誰でも解っているが現実には多くの人は理性的行動などしない。研究者と実務家の間には乖離がある。」

When the conversation turns to the U.S. presidential race, Bass said that Hillary would be the best choice given everyone that's running. When Maria mentioned that Hillary would raise taxes, Kyle lambasted the federal reserve easy monetary policy that only made the rich richer.

議論が大統領選になると、Hillaryが最善だろうとBassは言う。司会者のMariaがHillaryは増税するのではと言うと、Kyleこれに強く反論した、FEDの緩和策は金持ちをより金持ちにしているだけだと。

"So I'll give you a crazy answer, I think it's Hillary. I think she's the most sane actor of them all."

「ちょっと変化と思うかもしれないが、Hillaryがましだろう。候補者の中では彼女が一番分別がある。」

 

"Raising taxes, I mean, one thing you have to think about is this divide between the haves and the have-nots. One unintended consequence of Fed easy monetary policy has been this distributive nature where it made the rich richer. How many rich people do you know today that are worse off than they were at the peek of 2006. I don't know one, minus some of the Lehman people, I don't know one. What happened is we went to this policy where we went to QE, QE what that did was raise asset prices, well the only people with assets are rich people in general, so they became much more rich."

「増税に関して、我々は持てるものと持たざるもののこの分断のことを考えねば。FEDの緩和策は予期していなかったのかもしれないが金持ちをより金持ちにするという大きな格差を産んだ。２００６年ころに比べて暮らし向きの悪くなった金持ちがいるだろうか。そういう人など居ないだろう、Lehmanで働いていた人くらいだ。QEにつぐQEの結果は株や不動産の資産価格を持ち上げたわけだ、そういう資産を持っていた人だけがより金持ちになったわけだ。