ZeroHedge記事なので多少大げさですが、前回はサブプライムローン、今回は小型石油会社をキッカケに銀行不安の起こる可能性を注意喚起しています。


JPMorgan Just Did Something It Has Not Done In 6 Years

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday we reported something disturbing: a small regional bank, BOK Financial, announced that it had underestimated its exposure to energy loans, or rather loan, issued by just one company, and as a result its  previously forecasted provision for credit losses of $3.5 million to $8.5 million would be insufficient, and due to the unexpected loan impairment it would have to take a dramatic $22.5 million in credit losses." As a result BOKF stock crashed and is now trading at levels not seen since 2010.


昨日ZeroHedgeは何か変調がと記事にした:小さな地方銀行、BOK Financialがエネルギ関連ローン、およびローン一般リスクを過少見積もりしていたと開示した、対象顧客は一社だけではない、その結果貸し倒れ対策費用をこれまでの$3.5Mから$8.5Mに増やしたがこれでも十分では無い、予期せぬこげつきに備えるには貸し倒れ損失を$22.5Mと見なければと。」その後BOKFの株価は2010年来の安値となった。


The reason this is troubling is because as we said yesterday "banks have taken every possible opportunity to assure investors they all overly provisioned for any potential losses stemming from their exposure to impaired energy loans."

Clearly when it came to at least one lender this was not the case. And now the attention shifts to all the other banks, which brings us to the first big bank to report earnings earlier today, JPM.

Earlier we spread the company's financials and showed that while revenues had barely grown, and in the all important Investment Banking and Trading division revenues actually declined (offset with big cuts to compensation expenses, read bonuses), something else stood out: when skimming through the company's loan loss reserve disclosure, we found that in Q4 JPM did something it hasn't done in 6 years: for the first time in 22 quarters, or since March 2010, JPM actually increased its loan loss provisions by $89 million, instead of reducing this amount.


昨日のZeroHedge記事と同様に問題はここにある「エネルギ関連で毀損された負債が多く、過剰融資のリスクを銀行が負担せねばならない。」

明らかに対象企業は一社だけでは無い。いまやこの問題はこの銀行だけにとどまらない、大手銀行も始めてこの件を明らかにした、JPモルガンだ。

まず、財務を見て売り上げがほとんど伸びてないことに気づく、大手の投資銀行や投資部門の売上は後退している(すでに給与やボーナスを減らしている)、特に目立つのは:貸し倒れ準備金を見ると、JPモルガンQ4決算では2010年3月以来となる22四半期ぶりに増加させ$89Mとしている。


Indicatively, after peaking at $38.2 billion in Q1 2010, the amount of loan loss reserves had declined by $24.7 billion (an amount that went straight to JPM's net income line) through Q3 2015, before rising for the first time in 6 years in the fourth quarter.

What happened?


2010年Q1では$38.2Bに達していたが、貸出損失積算量は2015Q3までに$24.7Bに減少していた、それを6年ぶりに増やしたのだ。

何がおきてるのだろう?


As JPM disclosed in its earnings presentation, it had taken a "reserve build of ~$100mm driven by $60mm in Oil & Gas and $26mm in Metals & Mining" within the commercial banking group."

In other words, after half a decade of smooth sailing, Jamie Dimon is starting to get concerned.  This is what he said during the JPM earnings call:


JPMの利益開示資料によるとこういうことだ、「準備金は約$100Mとなるがそのうち$60Mは石油/ガス関連、$26Mは金属/鉱山関連による」。言い換えるとこの6年は順調な売り上げだったが、会長のJamie Dimonが懸念をもつようになった。彼はJPMの決算報告でこう言った:


JP MORGAN'S DIMON SAYS NOT WORRIED ABOUT BIG OIL COMPANIES, PROVISIONS ARE INCREASED AGAINST SMALLER ENERGY FIRMS


JPM会長Dimonは大手石油会社を不安視していない、問題は最近増えている小型エネルギ会社だ。

So JPM is not worried about big oil companies for now, but by implication it is worried about "smaller energy firms." The problem is that "smaller energy firms" account for about half of the production and the leverage in the US shale space, and many US banks - if not JPM - are directly exposed to them.

Which brings us back to the original question: if a regional bank like BOK Financial was slammed by just one loan (to what we can only assume was a smaller energy firm), where does the buck stop, and how many other regional, or even big, banks, are woefully underreserved in their exposure to energy loans. And most importantly, how long before the impairments and charges currently targeting smaller firms finally shift to the bigger ones: how underreserved is JPM for that eventuality?

As for the rest, earnings season is just getting started: we expect to find just who has been far more busy managing investor expectations instead of actually provisioning for soaring loan losses in the coming weeks. Remember: increasingly more managers are predicting that up to a third of US energy companies will go bankrupt if oil fails to rebound from current prices. And that is an eventuality no bank has provisioned for.


このとおり、今はJPMは大手石油会社を不安視していない、しかし「小型エネルギ会社」を心配している。問題は「小型エネルギ会社」への貸出が半分を占め、米国シェールオイル関連でレバレッジをかけている、JPMだけでなく多くの米国銀行が直接貸し出している。

ここで最初の疑問に立ち返る:もしBOK Financialのような地方銀行が一つのローンで貸し倒れになった時、どこで連鎖反応を止めるだろう、どこまでの地方銀行、もしくは大銀行の準備金でまかなえるだろう。いまはまだ地方銀行レベルだが、大手銀行に影響が及ぶまでにどれほどの時間があるのだろう:そのときJPMの準備金で充分だろうか?

最後に、この四半期が始まったばかりだが:今後増えると思われる貸し倒れではなく、銀行への投資家対策で忙しかったのはだれだろう。覚えておいてほしい:原油価格反転がなければ米国エネルギ会社の1/3は倒産すると多くのマネジャーが考えている。どの銀行もこの事態に備えてはいない。