主要メディアCNBCがこういう記事を掲載しています。CNBCなどは万年強気記事しか見ないものですが。

Insiders sending an ominous market signal








The recent jump in stock prices has one important group of disbelievers.

Corporate insiders have been dumping shares at the highest pace in 4½ years, according to market data firm TrimTabs. The selling averaged $450 million a day in November, the highest since May 2011.

That has come in a month when the benchmark S&P 500 index has gained about 0.9 percent and is coming off its best week of the year, registering a 3.3 percent jump. Insider behavior, though, is often seen as a reliable indicator of underlying market strength, raising concern about the durability of a rally that began in October, tailed off in early November, but has come back strongly of late.

最近株価が高騰しているがある種の人たちは不審に思っている。

企業インサイダーはこの4年半で最速で持ち株を売り抜けている、とTrimTabsの資料は物語る。この11月には平均売却は一日$450M(約500億円)、2011年5月以来だ。

この月S&P500は一月で0.9%も上昇した、一週間で3.3%という記録も生み出した。インサイダー動向は市場の強さをしめす良い指標だ、10月からのラリーの持続性に疑問がある。


"Talk about crosscurrents," said Jim Paulsen, chief market strategist at Wells Capital Management. "The insider selling is a real negative signal for the market typically."


One of the primary reasons it hasn't pulled the market down is a push from companies buying back their own shares. Corporate buying, including cash takeovers and new buybacks, hit $96.2 billion in November. Since third-quarter earnings began in October, buybacks have averaged $3.9 billion a day, which TrimTabs said is the second-highest pace since the bull market began in March 2009.

「逆流現象だ」とWells Capital ManagementのJim Paulsenは言う。「インサイダーの売却は市場に対する警告だ」

第一に、自社株買いによる。企業買収や自社株買いはこの11月に$96.2B(約10兆円)だった。Q3が始まってから一日平均$3.9B(約4000億円)になる、この額は2009年3からのブル相場で二番目に大きい。


Getty Images

Buybacks have been an efficient way to push market growth as the Federal Reserve keeps borrowing costs low and retail investors remain reluctant market participants. Zero-interest money market funds continue to hold huge sums, with the current $2.67 trillion total 2.4 percent higher than a year ago, according to Investment Company Institute data.

自社株買いが市場の成長を促進している、FEDが資金調達コストを抑えているからで個人投資家は安心仕切っている。ゼロ金利資金調達総額はとんでもないことになっている、現在$2.67T(約300兆円)で昨年から2.4%増えている。


However, buybacks have faced increasing criticism, particularly from some presidential candidates, as a less-desirable use of capital than investing in plants, equipment and hiring. While buybacks soared capital expenditures have tumbled, falling 5.6 percent in the third quarter.

Essentially, the insiders are selling into strength, taking advantage of market rallies to pull back and cash in during a year when returns have been hard to come by. The S&P 500 is up just 1.65 percent year to date, while the blue chip Dow Jones industrial average is virtually unchanged.

しかし、自社株買いは批判に晒され始めた、特に何人かの大統領候補が批判する、設備投資ならいざしらず自社株買いに資金を使うなんて。自社株買いは増えているが、資本支出(設備投資等)は減っている、Q3に5.6%下落。

いつものことだが、インサイダーは相場が強い時に売る、市場が巻き戻し利益が望めない時には現金でもっているというわけだ。S&P500は年初来で1.65%の成長、ダウ平均は変わらず。



The market's struggles have neatly coincided with the Fed ending its quantitative easing program, which saw the central bank create $3.7 trillion to buy up various form of debt in an effort to goose financial markets. The third phase of QE ended in October 2014, and with it much of the bad-news-is-good-news theme that had kept the Fed "printing" money.

"I'm at a little bit of a loss as to what you're rooting for in the market, whether it's good news or bad news. It's unclear what the path is for the market to move higher," Paulsen said. "I think we're going to struggle like we have been all year."

Exchange-traded funds also behaved peculiarly during the market's big week, bringing in $1.9 billion total (according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch) but seeing traders flee some of the $2 trillion space's most popular plain-vanilla index funds.

市場はFEDの量的緩和の終了を注視している、市場刺激のためにFEDは$3.7T(約400兆円)の政府負債買取を行った。QE3は2014年10月に終了したが、FEDの紙幣印刷によりいまでも「悪いニュースは良いニュースだ。」

「市場刺激があるもの私は少し損失をだしている、良いニュースでも悪いニュースでも。市場の動向は不明確だ。」とPaulsenは言う。「いつものとおり格闘している。」大相場の週にしてはETFの動きも変だ、時価総額$2T(約200兆円)の普通の指数連動ETFから$1.9B(約2000億円)資金が流出している。


The SPDR S&P 500 saw net outflows of $1.8 billion, the PowerShares QQQ dropped $353.3 million and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust lost $336.8 million, according to ETF.com. Investor sentiment also slipped, with the American Association of Individual Investors weekly survey showing bearishness, or the expectation the market will be lower in six months, rising to its highest level in seven weeks.

SPDR S&P500は$1.8Bの資金流出、PowerShares QQQは$353.3M流出、そしてSPDR DJI平均は$336.8M流出した。投資意欲は薄れている、AAII週間センチメント調査は弱気だ、今後半年市場は下落するだろうと、この7週で一番の弱気だ。


While big ETF outflows often are considered a positive contrarian sign, overall sentiment seems unpersuaded by the market's recent bullish behavior.

Doug Kass, who runs the Seabreeze Partners hedge fund, said in a note Monday that weak market breadth — the difference between advancing and declining stocks — is among his chief concerns for whether November's rally is merely "the calm before the storm."

"The 'ah-ha' moment where investors lose faith in central bankers might be ever closer at hand," Kass said. "Both the technical and fundamentals are conspiring to form a possible toxic market cocktail."

ETFからの資金流出は一般的に逆張り反転サインとみなされるが、これまでの強気から市場全体の分いいは不透明だ。Seabreeze Partners ヘッジファンドのDoug Kasssはこう言うーー上昇銘柄、下降銘柄の差をみると11月のラリーは単に「嵐の前の静けさ」だと。

「中央銀行が信頼を失い、やっぱりそうかという時が近づいている」とKassは言う。「チャートを見てもファンダメンタルを見ても市場は毒酒を飲むことになる。」

Jeff CoxFinance Editor